BlackBook - Tuesday, 18 January 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 18 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MOE - Race 3
OTHER
On debut #14 PHASE OF WAR ran the fastest L400m and L200m of the meeting when coming from last to finish 4th. Very good form has come from the race with 2nd (Universal Lady), 5th, 6th and 7th all winning in their next two starts. In her return jump out, the 5yo mare led before taking the turn very wide but again showed nice closing speed to win Heat 8 on Jan 12 by a nice margin, but in slow time. One to watch.
MOE - Race 4
OTHER
Following a disappointing debut as a 2yo back in July 2021, #5 TEA MASTER looks to have returned in good order with a 2nd placing in a Dec 15 jump out to Heardyou and then again in Heat 8 on Dec 31 as he cruised to the line under no riding having had an easy run up front along the rail.
#7 SNAKEY MAG is an interesting runner. We had her marked down as one to watch following a jump out on Mar 10 (behind Ocular), except that jump out was back in 2020 marking almost two years since the now-5yo mare was last seen at any racetrack. Her return saw her finish 3rd in Heat 5 on Dec 13 but in amongst a lot more experienced gallopers in Yosemite, Sensationalisation and Volatile Stock. She held her own here and is certainly one to keep an eye on, hopefully into another jump out before she finally makes her long awaiting debut.
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OUR THOUGHTS
Moe, Race 3 - PHASE OF WAR
Was expecting (and hoping for) a bit more of a price for this mare having started $31 on debut where she ran really well - the run did only rate +10.8 but they went very slow to the 600m where she then rocketed home from last to finish 4th, at this track too. Expecting much of the same here having drawn barrier 9, she'll likely get back and be running on late. Queries on her fitness having only had the 1 jump out and it was in slow time.
JAMESATELLI's debut run rated +3.5, the clear best last start rating coming into this and he looks hard to beat with Jamie Kah on board. PHASE OF WAR can run well, but we'll stay out of this one at the price with too many question marks.
Moe, Race 4
Another one we expected a bit more of a price for, being SNAKEY MAG who debuts after a fair few jump outs and a couple of set backs. Drawn beautifully with barrier 4 though and will get every chance.
TEA MASTER has also jumped out well and brings in the best last start rating at +5.1 despite being beaten a big margin.
SABAID was a runner first up where he went to town and was outclassed significantly - it's been over 6 weeks since that run and he hasn't had any jump outs since. Draw's poorly with barrier 13 and is a big price here.
Bit of a raffle this race and happy to steer clear - we have a few runners and a few runners we were on last start, it's tough to sort and split them as they all look capable of going close here. SNAKEY MAG is the one to keep an eye on to see how she debuts, watch to see if she gets out in price closer to the jump.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +23.69 units at Recommend Price | +56.87 units at Betfair SP
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