BlackBook - Tuesday, 17 August 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 17 August 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. All NSW #BlackBook runners are 'other' runners.
PAKENHAM - Race 2
#1 HOLT (1) - E Jusufovic
The gelding under the breeding NIGHT OF THUNDER x PARORE was away poorly in a pair of jump outs on Dec 7 and Dec 14, the latest though he was able to muster speed to get up along the rail and lead before finishing 2nd to Glamdam. Much of the same in his return, getting away poorly in Heat 10 on Jul 5 and again mustering speed to get up along the rail and lead, but managing to hold on well over the 760m to win in the fastest time of the morning. Expect to see another jump out, hopefully with him beginning better.
Only two times were sub 50s - one being Jigsaw and the other being HOLT in Heat 9 on Jul 19 who didn’t beat much, but won by a margin in nice time. We mentioned him after a Jul 5 jump out that saw him win well but we noted his poor starts. He was away better in this heat, but wasn’t clean. He jumped about midfield before mustering up the speed to lead and then kicked away in the straight as he was given a couple of reminders from the jockey. He can go well in a maiden on debut.
Debuted in a hot race at Caulfield with some nice horses. Was only beaten 3.5L there and steps back to Maiden grade with barrier 1 - he has a stack of speed and expect him to lead and make the most of that barrier.
Should be winning this now with the scratching of He's The Ultimate. BIFROST is the only danger and probably worth a saver to breakeven - 1 of 3 horses brought over from NZ along with Elephant who won on Sat, so stable must have an opinion and NZ trial was nice in quick time. It's a 2 horse race for us.
PAKENHAM - Race 3
#7 TOBAYSURE (11) - P Stokes
TOBAYSURE was one of the standouts in Heat 4 on Aug 5, cruising to the win over the 1000m. The 3yo gelding jumped well, sat just in behind the speed throughout before getting room in the straight to just go through the motions and come over the top of the leaders with ease. He closed well in his Jul 20 and Mar 3 jump outs too and has shown he might have a bit of talent.
#9 NO WAY EVER (9) - C Maher & D Eustace
NO WAY EVER is a talented filly. She was a nice Caulfield jump out winner back on Feb 9 that was followed by a Cranbourne jump out win on Mar 15 and made it into our reviews. Given some more time, she returned to take out Heat 11 on Aug 3 over the 850m in nice time for the day without ever being asked to give much. John Allen had her under a strong hold but she still hit the line strongly with plenty more to give. Has talent.
Following the win of Island Edition at Ballarat on Monday, TOBAYSURE's jump out form looks very good now. NO WAY EVER won a Ballarat jump out hard held in 50.73s while Red Hawk won in 49.85s.
Backing NO WAY EVER (~$4+) and TOBAYSURE (~$5+) for even returns. Hopefully we have locked in a nice price as both have shortened in the market. John Allen goes to Pakenham for the one ride on NO WAY EVER, who we are putting on top.
The obvious danger is Awe, but can't have him as short as ~$2.50 with our other runners in the race. Prefer to be against.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
#6 SHILO LASS bolted in Heat 9 on Aug 2 in the fastest 760m time of the day, almost 1s quicker than the next best heat where she had the 66-rated 8yo Jesta Dreama chasing hard here. She had the benefit of some racing, having most recently finished 6th in a BM58 in July but she resumes here off a freshen up for Gavin Bedggood having previously been with Moroney. Follow her into a BM58 first up for the next stable.
She opened $23 on TAB and there was $10+ available for most of the time in early markets, so hopefully a few are on at the nice overs. She looks to be an E/W chance in this.
TAREE - Race 7
#7 EYEWITNESS (7) - Kristen Buchanan
Aug 2 (Wyong) - only just beaten (and ran over) by Bring Glory late, but clocked the clear fastest time of the day over the 845m by a comfortable 0.76s - jumped to the front and led here.
Looks a race between two - EYEWITNESS had 2 wins from 2 runs and only gets in with 59kg here. Expect her to push forward and hopefully get a nice lead - if she can, she'll be hard to run down.