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BlackBook - Tuesday, 16 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 16 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.



DONALD - Race 1

OTHER

Mick Price & Michael Kent could unveil another nice 3yo colt in #1 BENCOOLEN. The $190k son of Written Tycoon showed tremendous to lead Heat 4 on Aug 4 with ease before giving the field a slip at the top of the straight and opening up a big margin, holding that to the line. He was forced to take a sit off the pace in his first jump out on Jul 14, coming over the top of them late to win ahead of Ivory’s Delight (since 1st MDN) and Zephatino (since 5th MDN). He led his next jump out on Jul 25 where he went the line alongside the 77-rated Duchess, which is certainly jump out form that will hold up in most maidens. No surprise to see him nominated for the Caulfield Guineas, there’s a big watch on this colt for his debut.


We mentioned #4 GAMADALE NIP after his May 24 jump out where he was restrained, finishing 1L back in 2nd but easily could’ve won the heat. He then went dropped back to 700m in a Jun 15 jump out where he was instead allowed to run, leading throughout as he was then put under pressure in the straight to extend and win well ahead of Magic Chloe (since 5th and 1st in MDN’s) and Itchy Powder (since 4th in a BM58). Now stepping up to 900m, the 2yo gelding showed that turn of foot again to come off the speed from midfield and get over the top and win Heat 4 on Jul 26. Paul Preusker looks to have a nice mover on his hands, he’s one worth monitoring.


The Hayes boys look to have a speedy one in #6 OVER ’N’ OUT, the 2yofilly going to the line under a ridiculous hold in Heat 3 on Jul 29, winning comfortably but she did clock the second slowest time of the morning (50.96s vs days average of 50.19s). In saying that, have no doubt if she was allowed to fully stride out that she would’ve clocked a faster time. She was well held in a quiet Jul 15 jump out when 2nd as well. She’s by Overshare out of the mare Ava’s Delight, who did her best work over 1600m+ but was also Group 2 placed over 1400m. Lovely jump out, a filly to follow.


DONALD - Race 2

#7 MATAO MA (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

We’re keen for the return of MATAO MA. Despite not being able to break the maiden last prep in 4x starts when he was placed 4x times, he has some lovely form now and should be able to break the maiden this prep. He returned to win Heat 6 on Jul 14, cruising throughout when never asked for an effort. First up he was 2nd to Treporti before then finishing 2nd to the talented Pascero, 3rd to next start winners in Arktika and Hesket and 2nd in his latest run behind Plagiarized where 3rd, 4th and 5th all won their next start. Watch for another jump out before he heads back to the races, but we’d be surprised if he’s a maiden for much longer.

It was good to see MATAO MA ridden out and responding, coming over the top of the 70-rated The Stager in the concluding stages to win Heat 4 on Jul 25. Dissimilar to his quietly ridden Jul 14 jump out win, he was ridden 3-wide without cover before being put under significant pressure in the straight but showed that want to win as he got over the top late. As mentioned after his previous jump out, he has some lovely form from last prep where first up he was 2nd to Treporti before then finishing 2nd to the talented Pascero, 3rd to next start winners in Arktika and Hesket and then 2nd in his latest run behind Plagiarized where 3rd, 4th and 5th all won their next start. He shouldn't be a maiden for much longer, but he also won’t be much of a price.

Another jump out win for MATAO MA, taking out Heat 3 on Aug 4 over the 1000m in the second fastest time of the morning. We’ve already mentioned him twice so no need to dive too much into him again, but we’ll certainly be following him into his first up run.


DONALD - Race 3

OTHER

Super return by #9 PRINCESS NEFERTITI, finishing 2nd in Heat 6 on Jul 11 over the 1000m behind the last start Group-2 winner Prix De Turn. The returning 3yo filly went forward from the wide barrier, travelling on speed but out in the middle of the track as she cruised to the line under her own steam. Prix De Turn was put under significantly more pressure while she was travelling a lot easier, going on with it past the line. She finished a close 0.4L 3rd on debut behind New Enterprise and Belle Et Riche (since 1st in MDN and 1st in BM64), gapping 4th by a huge 5.25L. A $250k MM Gold Coast Yearling purchase, connections will be hoping she has returned in super order. Watching for another jump out prior to resuming.


DONALD - Race 6

OTHER

#12 MISS DANIEL closed well in her first jump out for Symon Wilde, coming over to VIC having been with Richard & Chantelle Jolly in SA prior. She clearly left the gates the best in Heat 5 on Aug 10 but was heavily restrained to drop to the rear of the field before then closing super on the iniside without much jockey pressure, finishing a close 3rd while her work past the line was super as well. She’s coming off a 5-week freshen up having finished 2nd in a BM58 at Ballarat to Rosalia who then won a BM64 by 2.75L ahead of The Duke Of Dubai (since 1st BM64 at Sandown on Wednesday). Being a 58-rated mare, she can head back to a BM58 and go well for the new stable.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Donald, Race 1

Tough race with our 3x runners being the top 3 in the market and two and them being sub-$2.50.

Happy to leave this race alone with no bets. If we're sorting our runners - GAMADALE NIP & OVER 'N' OUT hard to split with BENCOOLEN next pick.

#1 BENCOOLEN (6) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Low/Medium.

#4 GAMADALE NIP (4) - P Preusker

Low/Medium.

#6 OVER 'N' OUT (2) - B & JD Hayes

Low/Medium.

Donald, Race 2

#6 MATAO MA (6) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

Expecting him to be very hard to beat here - he's had the 3x jump outs, so he will be ready to go first up and if he runs to any of his 4x runs last preparation, he should be winning this. The issue is the price as he's getting quite short at ~$1.60. Look to play late at ~$2, but if he gets to sub-$1.50 we'll have to let him go around without us.

Donald, Race 3

#9 PRINCESS NEFERTITI (8) - C Maher & D Eustace

Medium.

Those who took short odds first up are going to have to be brave here. She'll take plenty of improvement from that and while she doesn't have any favours with barrier 8 of 9 here, Linda Meech signals an intent to go forward and she's one of the best in the business at it. Expect plenty of improvement 2UP now and she should be running very well here.

Donald, Race 6

#12 MISS DANIEL (3) - S Wilde

Medium.

Her jump out since switching stables was absolutely super and her only career win has come on the Soft track (4:1-1-1). Drawn beautifully and with Harry Coffey on board, she's the one to beat here. Not too keen on taking ~$2.50 though, so will be playing late and looking for ~$3.50+ (hopefully).

Last Updated: 8:28am on Tuesday, 16th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

675x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 212x placings (61%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

943x runners | 214x winners (23%) & 259x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.69 WIN $3.10 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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