BlackBook - Tuesday, 15 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 15 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


NEWCASTLE - Race 3

OTHER

#1 PARRYING has all the makings of a trial specialist, which is worrying but he’s had the 2x trial wins ahead of his return and his win in Trial 9 over Nov 4 very quick for the morning, the second fastest time behind Way To The Stars and only just outside one of the quicker times we have recorded. He’s a genuine speed horse so the 800-900m trials suit, so wonder if he heads to one of those 900m races first up (likely 1000m).

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Newcastle, Race 3

#1 PARRYING (6) - M Smith

Low/Medium.

As mentioned, we thought he might head to the 900m races and here he is in a 900m maiden first up. There is no doubt he has speed, he’s shown that in all of his trials and the 900m here certainly will suit. He's looked to settle well enough in his trials too, which is a very encouraging sign.

He beat Firebird Two comfortably in his first trial over 900m on Oct 21, but it was his latest that was sizzling, albeit over 797m. Ms Robyn Freeman was in the saddle there and she retains the ride here first up. Will be a matter of jumping cleanly from barrier 6, heading to the front and giving them something to chase.


Having a bet but ½ staking (collect 2%) + betting ½ this morning fixed and ½ on the SP as he may get out.

Last Updated: 8:22am on Tuesday, 15th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1057x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 289x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.14 WIN $3.02 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 28x wins (44%) & 17x placings (70%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 55x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 18x placings (49%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB