BlackBook - Tuesday, 15 March 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 15 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
OUR THOUGHTS
Ballarat, Race 1
We had KEYSBOROUGH in this race but he was a L(SCR) behind the barriers, which leaves us with no official BlackBook runners for the day - follow him into another MDN, especially if we can get a better track than a Heavy8 that he was due to line up on today - he was ~$2.60 out to $3.10+ late.
Ballarat, Race 3 - MALY MALT
The form for this filly is very good. On debut she ran 4th with 3rd (Dream Inherit) and 5th (Glamouring) winning since, while 2nd (Junko) has run 4th while 6th and 7th have since both placed. In her second start she was 3rd to a talented My Whisper who came out and won by 1.8L impressively at Sandown, while 4th (Liming) has also since won. The debut rated +7.4 (which is the best peak rating of the race) while the second up run rated +9.8 (which is the best last start rating of the race). She ran the meeting's second fastest L200m and third fastest L400m on debut over the 1100m while second up over 1200m she ran the meetings 4th fastest L200m and 5th fastest L400m, so the step up to 1400m now third up certainly looks as though it will suit.
ESKLING brings in the second best last start rating from that debut run - has had 3x jump outs in preparation for this, so should be forward enough but won't be at peak fitness like MALY MALT. The scratching of MORRISSETTE helps, especially considering she won quite well at Warrnambool on Monday.
We were happy to get involved in MALY MALT at the $5-$6 and that's why we've got a write up on her without her being a BlackBook runner, but with some key scratchings and ~$0.37 of deductions, she seems a bit short now around the ~$3.30 mark to be getting involved.
Expecting her to run well but there is a definite query on how she'll handle the Heavy8 track and considering she's not an actual BlackBook runner, we won't get involved at that price.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +4.36 units at Recommend Price | +40.37 units at Betfair SP
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