BlackBook - Tuesday, 14 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 14 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


MORNINGTON - Race 3

OTHER

The un-raced 4yo mare #14 YONCE held her own in Heat 9 on Nov 16 against the 66-rated Cosmic Rhapsody with Japery, Shadow Goddess and Shakespeare behind. She looked to be hitting the line well and extending past it despite being under no pressure. Keen to follow her into hopefully another jump out prior to her debut.

Her first jump out was a bit better than this one, but still though #14 YONCE moved and closed well enough to be one to follow on debut. She was 3rd in Heat 4 on Dec 1 and was put under a bit of pressure late, but we must keep in mind that the winner, Frosty Vonn, had race on her side and even the 2nd horse, Mannerim Miss, was in her fourth jump out while this was the second fastest 850m time of the morning. This wasn’t super, but good enough to be one to keep in mind on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Mornington, Race 3 - YONCE

Scratched from Geelong on Friday due to having a wide barrier, running here instead with barrier 7 of 13 and Ben Allen on board as one of two debutants in the race. In her first jump out she finished 2nd to Cosmic Rhapsody who subsequently finished 4th in a BM58 and then won a BM64 at Bendigo on Sunday. Her latest jump out was good but it wasn’t great, although it certainly was good enough to give a maiden like this a shake.


She's the sole debutant following the scratching of MISS VERBIER (who we were against anyway), and she's been smashed in betting at $1.60 currently.


There isn’t much from the raced either, with the best last start rating being LUMINARA at +7.2 and RATHKEALE at +7.5 with the rest of the field all above +10.0. I SHOT THE SHERIFF looks to be the main danger having had excuses last start with his first up run rating +11.5. TABBY STAR has been okay at the jump outs and would expect him to go forward from barrier 5 and give them something to chase down. Didn't think there were any standouts though and it won't take anything special to win this.


Think she's the one to beat, but not interested in taking ~$1.60. Our last 5x tips that have started sub-$3 at the Betfair SP have resulted in 0 wins 4x 2nd's and a 4th... so we haven't had the best of luck with the favourites recently.

Happy to let her go around without any bets - if she drifts to $2+, maybe closer to $2.50 somehow late then we'll look to get involved but not at sub-$1.80.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +6.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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