BlackBook - Tuesday, 13 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 13 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
HAMILTON - Race 1
OTHER
#3 POWER MISSILE could be a nice colt for Lindsey Smith. Ignore his 4th of 4 in a Warrnambool jump out on Jul 27, you can’t see a thing, and judge him based on his slick win in Heat 7 on Aug 10. He was away slowly, but caught up to the field with ease before overracing and throwing the head around as he wanted to get on with it. He was allowed to stride around them here, taking up the lead with ease and then really extending away in the straight under minimal jockey pressure. In 2nd place was the 65-rated Mister Me, who was coming off a 6-week freshen up having finish 1st and 2nd in BM64’s this prep, but even he struggled to really get over the top of him despite being under significantly more pressure. Looks a nice and big colt that we can follow.
HAMILTON - Race 2
OTHER
#9 MILLENNIUM FALCON led from start to finish in her return jump out on Aug 15, but it was her work late in Heat 7 on Sep 1 that was even more encouraging. The 4yo mare was forced to take a sit in this heat, closing well late on Amfissa and Nearby when put under pressure but not as significant pressure as those other two, both of whom have won races. Keep an eye on this mare, especially as Linda Meech’s only horse in work as a trainer.
TELEGRAM CHAT
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Hamilton, Race 1 | |
#3 POWER MISSILE (3) - L Smith | High. The JO where he highlighted him was alongside Mister Me who then ran 2nd in a BM64. He has had a more recent JO on Aug 24 when 3rd and finishing around Mister Me and Written Sun. Post scratching, PALANTUS looks to be the only danger but wasn't convinced with his JO's, especially the latest when the other maiden had him covered. Backing POWER MISSILE - he should win this. |
Hamilton, Race 2 | |
#9 MILLENNIUM FALCON (2) - L Meech | Low/Medium. Linda Meech riding for herself here and she's drawn barrier 2 so expect this mare to go forward and give them something to catch. MATAO MA obviously deserves favouritism but he's made a habit of running 2nd and the Heavy track is a definite query, so at ~$10 this mare looks worthy of a bet. Happy to be with her - she looks a nice E/W chance. |
Last Updated: 8:31am on Tuesday, 13th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
682x runners | 206x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.25 WIN $2.30 PLC
'Other' Runners:
977x runners | 226x winners (23%) & 268x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.48 WIN $3.06 PLC
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB