Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 13 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MORNINGTON - Race 4
OTHER
#1 FROSTWOOD was purchased for $25k at the Inglis Online Sales despite being a 4yo gelding that’s an 8-start maiden. In his first jump out for the new Gareth Andrews stable, the big grey bolted in Heat 1 on Dec 5 over the 800m as he clocked the clear fastest time of the morning. Have to keep an eye on this son of Frosted, nice jump out.
Ricardo Meunier picked up #6 ROCK MELODY for only $2,250 on the Inglis April (Late) Online Sale and that might have been a bargain… the 4yo mare taking out Heat 4 on Nov 15 in the fastest 750m time of the morning. She was put under pressure at the top of the straight where she responded, before then being put away for the final 200m where the rest of the field made some ground. She’s had 4x placings in 4x career starts too so she’s clearly got enough talent to go well in a maiden but will just need to see where she pops up before seeing if she’s a bet or not.
We were on #7 BEL THRONUM on debut where she was smashed into a $2 SP favourite but finished 8th of 9 (albeit only 3L behind the winner) having pulled up blowing heavily with an irregular heart rhythm detected, so it’s a clear forgive run. She had jumped out super prior to this run and was very well fancied in the market, she is clearly better than that performance. She was back at the jump outs to get a clearance to run, winning Heat 6 on Nov 30 over 900m as she was pushed out past the line to really get her going in a nice bit of work. Follow her second up, she’ll run a much better race.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Mornington, Race 4 | As of this morning, no bets but will monitor prices and message in Telegram if we decide to bet. |
#1 FROSTWOOD (5) - G Andrews | Low. Jump out was nice but hard to back him first up on the back of only 1x JO at a track that is quite specialist to those that are trained here. Monitor the price to see if he gets out late, but at ~$8.50 we won't be on him. Hopefully runs well to follow 2UP. |
#6 ROCK MELODY (1) - R Meunier | Low. A couple of nice JO's and drawn nicely here with barrier 2 for her debut for the new stable. Expecting her to role forward and be right there throughout but don't have her beating the top few in the market. |
#7 BEL THRONUM (9) - J Hunter | Low/Medium. Smashed in betting first up when we were on her and she pulled up with a heart irregularity, so a clear forgive run. Her jump out since was good but she's drawn wide here (barrier 9 of 9) and that will be no favours here at Mornington, although it is her home track and that is a huge advantage. She can run well but hard to bet here. |
Last Updated: 8:09am on Tuesday, 13th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 702x runners | 214x winners (30%) & 225x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.11 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1087x runners | 264x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $11.96 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 40x runners | 24x wins (60%) & 10x placings (85%)
Medium Confidence: 77x runners | 32x wins (42%) & 19x placings (66%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 70x runners | 13x wins (19%) & 23x placings (51%)
Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):