BlackBook - Tuesday, 11 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 11 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
ECHUCA - Race 1
All eyes would’ve been on I Am Caviar in Heat 8 on Aug 24 but really liked the work of #3 MR TICKLES out wide. He’s an un-raced 3yo gelding who comes over to VIC having won a Jun 20 trial in Tasmania and looks to move well. One to monitor.
#3 MR TICKLES split I Am Caviar (1st) and Lake Agawam (3rd) in his Aug 23 jump out, both of whom flopped on debut at Moe. He then headed to Mornington to win Heat 9 on Sep 7 over the 900m where he was pushed out but responded well to riding, a bit of work that will really bring him on for his debut. A 3yo son of Magnus, he can go well enough on debut to be worth watching.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Echuca, Race 1
#3 MR TICKLES (4) - J McArdle
Jamie Mott heads to Echuca for only the one ride on this gelding and it certainly wouldn't surprise if it was a winning one - like that he was pushed out in his latest as that will bring him on for this but he has had 5-weeks since that latest jump out. This looks like an alright maiden with a few chances though, so that's a touch frustrating and dims the confidence a little but happy to back him - playing late and hoping to get a better price closer to the jump.
For those interested, we have Peter Moody's voice report on Rylov - you can listen here. Will note that Luke Nolen rode in the jump outs but isn't riding today.
Last Updated: 8:28am on Tuesday, 11th October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC
1019x runners | 240x winners (24%) & 279x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.32 WIN $3.04 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
THE RACE CLUB
The Jump Outs x The Race Club
Just a quick FYI, we’re now going to be posting some tips on The Race Club through their app/website. It’s a good opportunity for us to work with Adam and the team to get our name out there a little more with the potential for more opportunities down the track to venture into, so we’re looking forward to it.
What we post on The Race Club will be sent to everyone first, so no one will be at a disadvantage.
I’m sure the main question will be, what’s difference between The Race Club and this service?
We will only be posting select tips on The Race Club, which will pretty much be the runners that are ‘High’ confidence only.
The runners that are ‘Medium’ confidence will very rarely (!) be posted on The Race Club and the runners that are ‘Low’ and ‘Low/Medium’ won’t be posted on The Race Club.
So for an average week, there will be ~15 BlackBook runners that we have, which everyone here will get but only 3-4 will be on The Race Club, so it’s a big difference. We’re just dipping our toe in the water, so to speak.
If you’re already signed up to The Race Club or want to sign up, please let us know.
Any questions or issues, just message/email us. Thanks all and looking forward to more winners!