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BlackBook - Tuesday, 11 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 11 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 2

We liked the work of EMBARQUE in her first jump out this preparation, winning Heat 6 on May 29 over the 990m after trailing the field for most of the heat but easily closing the best late albeit under minimal jockey pressure. She’s a 3yo Zoustar filly that is the older sister to the recently Group-1 placed Bases Loaded and looks to be a nice mover herself.


The flashy Zoustar filly EMBARQUE was back at it again as she bolted in Heat 4 on Jun 12 and it was the way in which she won that was mightily impressive, sitting on speed and leading throughout as she was then put under a little pressure at the top of the straight as she was challenged and she just went bang, opening up that massive margin and clocking the second fastest time of the morning behind only Katsu. She was good over 1000m on the synthetic track in a May 29 jump out and now looks primed for her debut. If she can be half as talented as her younger brother in Bases Loaded, she’ll win most maidens on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 2

#8 EMBARQUE (9) - G Begg

High.

She went forward on debut and sat outside Naughty Nitemare throughout the run with that runner dropping out to finish 9th by 14.3L but then coming out and leading the whole way here at Ballarat to win by 1.8L. This filly kicked away but was no match for Our Red Morning (since won a 3YO HCP at Caulfield by 3L) late but did put a 5L gap on Xiao Long Bao back in 3rd with that galloper since running 3rd at Moe by only 1.6L. Super form.


Barrier 9 isn't ideal, but think she just goes forward and crosses to lead so if she does get across on a track that favours leaders and runs to her debut, she should win this with ease.


The issue is the price, as she's getting short so it's a bit of personal preference if you didn't get any of the $1.75/$1.80 on Monday. Expecting her to start ~$1.50.

Last Updated: 7:42am AEDT on Tuesday, 11th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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