BlackBook - Tuesday, 11 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 11 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KILMORE - Race 1

#2 INUNDATION (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

INUNDATION is a son of Headwater that was a $30k Magic Millions 2YO’s in training purchase in 2020 and looks to have some talent. His solid Dec 9 jump out win in front of Lost In Roppongi (who we have an opinion of) was backed up by an extremely slick win in Heat 7 on Dec 29 in the fastest 850m time of the morning. He was away fairly, quickly mustering speed to take up the lead and was way too good, kicking away in the straight to record a big 5L+ win. He couldn’t have done it much easier and had Lost In Roppongi not got close in his first jump out, he’d have two big margin jump out wins. He’s a must follow.


OTHER

Jody Thompson might have a smart one of her hands… #13 WAR OF WISDOM resumed for a massive Nov 22 jump out win at Kilmore before backing that up with a super win in Heat 10 on Dec 8. The 3yo filly was away awkwardly but was able to muster speed very quickly to take a sit in behind the speed along the rail. She was absolutely travelling throughout and looked super, looking for a gap where she got one up along the rail late and exploded to the front to win. She didn’t beat much in terms of quality opposition, but the way she moved and won here was very impressive. Keen to follow her into her debut.


KILMORE - Race 2

#7 CHAIN (1) - C Waller

It was only CHAIN’s first jump out back this preparation, and although he was slowly away in Heat 13 on Dec 17, he looked to be weaving his way through the field and had a bit more to offer. He caught the eye and we’ll follow him into another jump out.

We mentioned CHAIN after his first jump out on Dec 17 where he sat off the speed and weaved his way through late and had a lot more to offer. His win in Heat 10 on Dec 31 saw him too good for the field, travelling quietly along the rail to lead from start to finish and win under no jockey pressure in nice time. He was under a strong hold throughout while those around him were under a lot more pressure. A $260k Magic Millions purchase who’s now with Chris Waller, he looks to be travelling well.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kilmore, Race 1 - INUNDATION (+ WISDOM OF WATER)

HER EMPIRE has been scratched, which we're happy about. We were on WISDOM OF WATER first up on debut where she started $5.50 and we're now getting $61+ (was $151 earlier...). On face value, 7th doesn't look great but the run rated +6.9 and it's the third best last start rating of this race, so she might be a touch overs and the one to have something really small on in early markets as she has to come in in price.


INUNDATION's jump outs have been super, especially his latest after being gelded and think he will run very well here if he brings that jump out form to the races. Barrier 7 is a bit of a sticky draw now after scratchings as it is the widest barrier, but it's not super wide and he should be able to overcome it. He looks smart.


Kilmore, Race 2 - CHAIN

CHAIN’s two career runs have rated +4.2 and +0.9, with those two runs being the two best peak rating’s coming into this race. If he runs to either of those, he’ll win this. His jump outs suggest he’s returned improved as well, jumping out super at Flemington and he draw’s beautifully here with barrier 1 and Craig Williams on board to get a lovely run throughout. He looks very hard to beat to us.


HOW TO PLAY

The issue is working out how to play our two runners with them both at ~$1.60. Personally, we're not a fan of multi's as usually one of the legs loses and then we get $NIL return even if one of them win so we'll play be playing both of them individually as we're very confident at least one of them will win (and then we get some return). If you're wanting to play them as a multi, then we wouldn't talk you out of it - it's a bit of personal preference.


INUNDATION is the better bet of the two runners, but CHAIN is also a good bet. We're also on WAR OF WISDOM at a big price in early markets (even post deductions), which is a good saver bet for a little bit of profit for very minimal outlay.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


Total outlay is 4.70 units.


Kilmore, Race 1

INUNDATION ~ 2.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP

WAR OF WISDOM ~ 0.20 units WIN @ $61.00 (TopSport, TAB & others)

*after deductions, the $61.00 becomes $34.16 on TopSport and $32.94 on TAB.


Kilmore, Race 2

CHAIN ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +32.21 units at Recommend Price | +65.39 units at Betfair SP


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