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BlackBook - Tuesday, 11 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 11 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 3

OTHER

Nice debut jump out from the Iffraaj gelding #4 VALPANTENA, finishing 5th in Heat 13 on Mar 14 but it was the way in which he went about his business here that caught the eye. He was a touch slowly away and as a reuslt found himself at the rear of the field but he was able to make his way to the middle of the track where he closed nicely, albeit with minimal room late yet finishing only 2.6L off the winner. He was really powering to and through the line as well, hard her past the line as he was going on with it, which is always very encouraging especially when they’re only having their first jump out. A gelding keeping a very close eye on.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 3

#4 VALPANTENA (13) - R Hoysted

Low.

He's well bred, out of an NZ mare that won a Group 3 over 2000m and a half-brother to the Redoute's Choice mare in Vavasour, a Group 2 winner over 2000m and dual Group 3 winner over 2100m & 2400m.

Based on his breeding and being by Iffraaj, he'll clearly appreciate further and if he doesn't win today, he's one to continue following as he gets out in distance.


Suspect he'll get back from barrier 13 and be looking to run on late, so it's not a high percentage play and as a result we don't have a stack of confidence but we don't have to outlay much to find out how this gelding goes - he's a nice E/W bet (probably more a place chance).


If you didn't get the $41/$9.50 available over the weekend (now 13c deductions), still think we can play at the $21+ available now.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bendigo, Race 3

#1 ESECUTORE (5) - M Laurie

BlackBook jump out comments:

ESECUTORE clocked the fastest time of the morning in his win in Heat 10 on Mar 15, which was also one of the fastest times we have recorded in a super bit of work. It was only a 750m jump out and it’s only his first bit of work, but have to mention him as he did so in such slick time with ease.

Last Updated: 7:38am AEDT on Tuesday, 11th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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