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BlackBook - Tuesday, 1 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 1 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


ECHUCA - Race 3

OTHER

It’s hard to get a real gauge on #6 CAMPASPE RUN but two wins ahead of his debut is all you can. He bolted in a Oct 4jump out at Wangaratta against poor opposition prior to his easy win in Heat 10 on Oct 12 where he looked a class above Shadowy Drive late despite that runner being mid prep having finished in the first five (including three placings) in all 5x of his runs this prep. There won’t be heaps of confidence, but this was nice enough to be keeping an eye on him.


KEMBLA GRANGE - Race 1

OTHER

#4 PROMISING PROSPECT was kept under a hold for the entire 787m in Heat 11 on Sep 23, finishing a close 3rd but easily could’ve won this heat if he was ever asked for an effort. It was encouraging to see him going on with it through the line, while this run was the pretty much the exact same as his previous Sep 9 as he also finished 3rd in between horses. Amanda Turner was clearly a big fan of this gelding, purchasing him for $370k at the Inglis Ready2Race Sales back in 2021, so keep an eye on where this 3yo Capitalist gelding pops up on debut.


RANDWICK - Race 4

OTHER

#8 SATURN STAR was absolutely super in Trial 1 on Oct 21 over the 1030m, holding off Lost And Running and Buenos Noches. He was scratched from the gates on Wednesday in a BM78, which he would’ve bolted in based on his trial here. Super form from his debut win now too with Pereille (2nd) and Tribeca Star (3rd) since running 2nd and 3rd in the same race, Golden Age (4th) since winning, Pungo (5th) since winning and even Call Di (7th) has since ran a huge 3rd in a Listed race on Saturday. Follow him second up, especially if he goes around in another benchmark race like he was entered in on Wednesday.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Echuca, Race 3

#6 CAMPASAPE RUN (6) - M Newton

Low/Medium.

Michael Newton hasn't had a runner since December 2021, which makes it hard to have any real confidence in the stable and it's hard to get a real guide from his jump outs but he really couldn't of been better in them and as a result, we're happy to be backing him to find out, just can't be having a big bet.

Playing ½ now and ½ on the SP as it wouldn't surprise to see him get out late, due to that stable factor.

Kembla Grange, Race 1

#4 PROMISING PROSPECT (8) - A Turner

Low.

Trials were good without setting the world alight and this is a handy race, but at $12/$3, happy to have a small bet to see how he goes.

Randwick, Race 4

#8 SATURN STAR (4) - G Waterhouse & A Bott

High.

As mentioned, he has had some super form come from his debut race and his trial since then was super ahead of Group 1 horses, and here he is popping up in a BM64.


He looks a good thing here - very keen to be with him and happy to take anything $2+.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Flemington, Race 3

#8 EXCELMAN (9) - R Laming

Have no doubt that Richard Laming had this race in mind again after winning it last year off a similar set up. Last year he won it first up after a 12-week spell and 2x jump outs. This year, he's only had the 1x 1000m jump out but did run 10-weeks ago over 1350m.


We mentioned him after his big Oct 17 win as one to keep an eye on.

Having a small (½ stake) bet at the $14+ available and should try use those bookie bonus back promotions if available.

FLEMINGTON, RACE 1 - 2YO PREVIEW

Couldn’t have EXPOSITION, PARADE GROUND, AMELIE or BAD GIRL BUBBLES off their jump outs. Hard to see KRAKARIB turning the tables on ZULFIQAR from their debut run and prefer to be with the new comers instead.


Hard to go past ZULFIQAR from his Darley Maribyrnong Trial Stakes win - he was professional and did everything right, has the race fitness and experience (especially up the straight) and likely proves hard to beat.

AWESTRUCK had some solid jump outs at Cranbourne and she also handled the wet tracks there. MZ for Price/Kent is a good booking. She might be the value bet that’s worth a spec.

Zulfiqar's stablemate DIABELLI looked solid in that Oct 21 jump out together, he looks one of the main dangers.

Gap to fourth where we have HELISH ahead of LITTLE BROSE but not by a real lot and they likely are place chances.


Numbers: 1-9-3-5

No recommended bets though. ZULFIQAR should win but not much value - AWESTRUCK the one at a little bit of extra value that can run well.

Last Updated: 8:10am on Tuesday, 1st November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 696x runners | 213x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.15 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1045x runners | 250x winners (24%) & 285x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.18 WIN $3.02 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 33x runners | 22x wins (67%) & 7x placings (88%)

Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 26x wins (44%) & 16x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 50x runners | 7x wins (14%) & 16x placings (46%)

Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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