Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 1 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
STONY CREEK - Race 2
OTHER
#6 SNAKEY MAG is an interesting runner. We had her marked down as one to watch following a jump out on Mar 10 (behind Ocular), except that jump out was back in 2020 marking almost two years since the now-5yo mare was last seen at any racetrack. Her return saw her finish 3rd in Heat 5 on Dec 13 but in amongst a lot more experienced gallopers in Yosemite, Sensationalisation and Volatile Stock. She held her own here and is certainly one to keep an eye on, hopefully into another jump out before she finally makes her long awaiting debut.
Following a 650m jump out win on Jan 5, #9 OHANA FIRST stepped out to 900m and led from start to finish in Heat 9 on Jan 19 to win in slick time. The 3yo filly is by Lonhro out of the mare Armed For Action who was 3rd in the Blue Diamond, so there is some breeding behind her. Slick bit of work here, one to keep an eye on.
OUR THOUGHTS
Stony Creek, Race 2
We have been waiting for SNAKEY MAG to debut for quite some time now, first blackbooking her after jump outs back in late-2019/early-2020. She's always shown talent at the jump outs but just hasn't quite been able to get to the track - she was even scratched the other week from a race as she was found to be lame on raceday. She's on debut her with a lovely draw of barrier 2 and Brian Park on board.
The scratching of BEAUKATI brings a bit of speed out of the race. In saying that, OHANA FIRST looks to have a stack of speed and has drawn favourably with barrier 5 - expect her to push forward. Don't think she gets an easy lead though and having only had one jump out over 650m, have a slight query on her late even though she might be the best horse in this race.
MARCH FORWARD jumped out fairly - think she's only ~$4 because of the Jamie Kah x Clayton Douglas factor. ULTRAVOX jumped out reasonably well, as the Busuttin horses always do though - barrier 3 and Craig Newitt on board signal a positive ride, so there is some more speed. MISS PROSPECTOR jumped out okay.
Thought OHANA FIRST was the one to beat, but a slight query on how forward and ready she'll be on debut here - she's also quite short below $2 (currently $1.80) which we aren't keen on taking with SNAKEY MAG in the race. SNAKEY MAG was scratched the other week after being found to be lame and has taken a while to get to the track because of injury issues - don't want to be playing her either with those sort of queries.
Wouldn't talk you out of backing either OHANA FIRST or SNAKEY MAG while saving on the other, they look the two to beat but a few too many queries for us to make them official plays.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +19.39 units at Recommend Price | +56.57 units at Betfair SP
When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.
PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...
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