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BlackBook - Thursday, 9 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 9 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 2

OTHER

Nice return from #8 CELESTIAL HARBOUR following her debut prep that saw her finish 2nd in her only run that prep. She took out Heat 10 on Feb 13 quite comfortably but didn’t break any records on the clock. She’ll have another bit of work before her first up run so we’ll keep an eye out for that.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 2

#8 CELESTIAL HARBOUR (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

High.

ARMSTRONG BAY has had 5x starts, all on Heavy tracks so he might see a stack of improvement on a dry track for the first time. He is the one the obvious danger and it looks a race between two.

Hard to have ALWAYS A SAINT on the back of his debut and having had no JO’s since then, which was Dec last year. Likewise the rest of the field, they’ll have to improve a stack on form to win this.


Our filly's jump outs have been super, that latest behind All Sassed Up and Mootessa who ran 2nd and 4th in the same race since, while Holly Lolly has since ran 4th at Flemington behind Arctic Fairy. She’s the clear one to beat and having drawn barrier 2, she’ll get a lovely run and have every chance to break the maiden. She should win this.


Issue is that her price is short - think we play ½ now at the ~$1.85 and the other ½ late if she gets out - if she gets backed into $1.50, we won't re-back and we'll ride our ½ stake at $1.85 only.

Pakenham, Race 2

#9 MUISCA (7) - J Bridgman

Low/Medium.

The tongue tie went on following a disappointing first up run where she ran super, clocking the meetings 19th fastest L400m and 16th fastest L200m despite being held up rom 400m to 100m, finishing only 3.5L off them and we've seen the 2nd horse since win.


She comes back to the home track third up where she will be peaking. This is clearly a tougher race but as a result she's a big price (currently $19+), so we can have a small bet - just monitor and play late as

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 1

#6 FROSTED ROMANCE (4) - M Trotter

BlackBook jump out comments:

We’ll have to be with FROSTED ROMANCE on debut with her win in Heat 21 on Feb 27 the bit of work we want to see before resuming. She had a solid Feb 13 jump out over 800m, but her work here over 1000m was nice as she led and was put under pressure late, responding to that riding to extend and win. She should’ve won on debut when she was held up, but the form hasn’t been great so it’s encouraging to see that she may have improved and if so, she can go well in a maiden first up.

Last Updated: 7:48am AEDT on Thursday, 9th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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