BlackBook - Thursday, 9 February 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 9 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
Keen to follow #12 LADY DI DI on the back of her debut prep form anyway. She was 2nd on debut to Katsu (won BM64 next start) before then running 2nd to Skidamarink (won BM64 next start) and then running 3rd to Aoraki Summit and Flying Temptress (won MDN next start). She just jogged around in a 700m jump out on Jan 18, but was given more of a hit out in Heat 11 on Jan 25 where she was pushed out late to win. She just needs to find a maiden where she won’t meet one better and she will be very hard to hold out, so keen to follow her first up regardless.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 5
#12 LADY DI DI (9) - C Brown
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Pakenham, Race 3
VON HAUKE will take a stack of improvement from that first up run where he went back due to the barrier and was trapped wide - he came home well but met one better on the day. The step up to 1400m here suits and he's drawn a lot better with barrier 4 so Jamie Kah can get him into a closer position in running and show that turn of foot we know he has.
We were on AMERICAN LIAISON first up and he will appreciate the step up to 1400m now second up.
ETERNAL FLAME deserves to be favourite, running super behind Shaime with a 4L gap back to 3rd, she will also appreciate the step up to 1400m.
Just not a race we can get involved in with any confidence and we're better off keeping our cash. If you're going to back any, VON HAUKE second up would be the pick but not betting.
Pakenham, Race 3
We were on SIGNAL first up where he led and was run down late by Magnus Red who then ran 12L last in a BM64. Thought he'd be better suited back to 1000m/1100m rather than stepping up to 1200m and he's drawn poorly here with barrier 12.
We were also on BIG WATCH first up, who was very disappointing. Thought he'd be better going up to 1400m and Jamie Mott said he'd appreciate blinkers, of which he has no gear changes here, so a bit of a weird one.
TREOTTO was an ex-BlackBooker in a previous prep and ran super 1UP at Flemington when 2nd, drawn for a nice run here and might even lead.
It's a nice race where we have LADY DI DI as our top selection and the one to beat on the back of her slick jump outs (plus her form) as we mentioned, but there are plenty of chances that can beat her that have some race fitness on their side too, so it's hard to dive into the ~$2.20 with any confidence.
Last Updated: 8:19am AEDT on Thursday, 9th February 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):