BlackBook - Thursday, 10 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 10 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KILMORE - Race 1

OTHER

In typical Gai Waterhouse fashion, #4 SALEM went straight to the front in Heat 6 on Dec 23 and led from start to finish, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. He had three runs as a late-2YO in June and July, getting Heavy tracks in his first two runs over 1200m before stepping up to 1600m and tiring late. This was his first jump out in VIC and it looked as though the blinkers have gone on now, which is certainly a positive gear change. Watch for another jump out, but we’d expect him to do much of the same there and in his return to the races.

Another encouraging bit of work from #5 STARZ BARWON, closing well to win Heat 3 on Jan 19 much like how he did in his Jan 5 jump out despite doing a lot of work throughout, travelling a good 3-4 wide the trip without cover. He was given a couple of slight reminders from the jockey but he looked too classy for this lot and also looked to be a big horse with a nice stride. As mentioned after his first jump out, he ran the meeting’s fastest L800/600/400m and second fastest L200m (winner ran the fastest) on debut with a big 2.5L gap to 3rd with the winner of the race, being Lavish Girl, has since won a BM70 and been placed in a Listed race, both at Flemington. He looks a nice horse and can certainly go well first up in a maiden.

#5 STARZ BARWON ran the meeting’s fastest L800/600/400m and second fastest L200m (winner ran the fastest) on debut with a big 2.5L gap to 3rd. The 3yo gelding hasn’t been seen since, returning in Heat 6 on Jan 5 where he was very quietly ridden and cruised to the line in 3rd place, looking to move really well in the process. Watching for another jump out as we think he has the talent to win a maiden.

THE GARDEN closed well down the outside of the track along the outside rail in Heat 11 on Jan 18 to just nab #6 ZOUHOPE late who was travelling on the inside of the track along the inside rail, running nice time for the morning in the process. #6 ZOUHOPE is probably the one to take away from this for us, being a maiden with 0 placings from 3 starts but looks to have come back improved. He was untouched in a pair of jump outs late last year on Dec 7 and Dec 21, and looks to be travelling well enough to go alright in a maiden first up. One to keep an eye on.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

#1 BRITISH COLUMBIA (4) - G Begg

BRITISH COLUMBIA was never asked for an effort when 3rd in Heat 5 on Jan 17 (red), but the way the 3yo gelding moved looked really smooth and classy. He’s a son of Vancouver that’s a half-brother to the talented gelding Theanswermyfriend and looks to have returned in good order. Classy mover, one to keep an eye on with this being his first jump out back.


Backing up a nice Jan 17 return jump out, BRITISH COLUMBIA backed it up with a very slick 1000m win in Heat 12 on Feb 1, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process that was even quicker than Heat 1 that included Group 1 stars in Sierra Sue and I’m Thunderstruck. He got a lovely spot on the inside with cover, popping out in the straight to get some clear galloping room as he showed a lovely turn of foot to get up and win. Expecting a much improved second career preparation, he looks to have returned in super order.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

#8 CREME DE LA BOMME (8) - P Stokes

CREME DE LA BOMME wasn’t quite able to break her maiden in her debut prep, finishing 2nd in all three runs with the latest behind talented gelding Riot And Rose. The 4yo mare returned to win Heat 4 on Jan 18 ahead of Lightsaber and Island Edition and looks to have returned in good order. Looking for another jump out prior to resuming.


Another lovely jump out for the 4yo mare CREME DE LA BOMME, taking out Heat 2 on Feb 1 over the 1000m with ease as she jumped cleanly, led and travelled comfortably throughout to win with a big gap back to 3rd. We mentioned her after her Jan 18 jump out win and on the back of this work, she should be getting that maiden win this preparation. Mindful of what price she pops up at first up, not expecting anything big due to her form so will have to assess depending on the price. Regardless, she’s returned super.


OTHER

This was a very impressive return. A 5yo gelding that’s very lightly raced with only the two starts, #1 HARMSWORTH was a big eye catcher with his win in Heat 9 on Feb 1 with the big baldy face and white socks. He’s a good look Written Tycoon gelding with a nice action. He hasn’t been seen for almost 12 months so look for another jump out prior to resuming for the new Michael Kent yard.


#4 O’LUCKY was 2nd on debut to a now-3x winner before finishing 3rd to Americain Angel and Designs. Subsequently spelled, the 4yo gelding returned to win Heat 7 on Jan 10 comfortably in slick time as he showed good speed to lead throughout and go to the line untested. He did so in front of previous winners, so a very nice return and keen to keep an eye on him prior to resuming.

Another nice bit of work from #4 O’LUCKY, backing up his Jan 10 win with another nice all the way win in Heat 14 on Jan 24 with the recent BM70 winner Vespertine the only real one to make ground late. He stepped up to 1000m and was given a push late, which will give him a good base to get back to the races on. Expect him to be prominent first up in a maiden.


PAKENHAM - Race 4

OTHER

The Mick Price and Michael Kent owned #8 THE BIG HEIST didn’t look out of place against some more experienced gallopers as the finished 2nd to Hint Of Mint in Heat 5 on Dec 21. Only his first jump out so keep an eye on him for another bit of work - he looked to have a nice big stride on him.

#8 THE BIG HEIST put together another nice jump out to back up his Dec 21 (2nd) jump out behind Hint Of Mint, extending away late when given a push to win Heat 12 on Jan 5 relatively easy in the end. As mentioned previously, the 3yo gelding is solely owned by Mick Price and Michael Kent, so suspect they have a big enough opinion of him to keep ownership. He looks talented and is one to follow into his debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kilmore, Race 1 - STARZ BARWON

SALEM has since stepped out to 1100m in a jump out on Jan 10 and was beaten a very long way after leading and being pushed out - can't possibly back him on the back of that. OCEAN DANCER had the measure of LIMING in a Jan 28 jump out - LIMING has only jumped out fair, would prefer OCEAN DANCER.


Ignore STARZ BARWON's last run completely - he clearly didn't handle the Heavy conditions and probably should've been scratched - he also had a slow recovery. We almost need to consider this as his first up run - drawn barrier 12 of 12, which isn't ideal but it should allow him to get a nice sit and some room to move late as he looks a big horse with a nice turn of foot.


Have STARZ BARWON on top (giving another chance), with ZOUHOPE the main danger and looks to be the saver bet.


Pakenham, Race 1 - BRITISH COLUMBIA

This is just a race between SILLY SALMON and BRITISH COLUMBIA - can't possibly see anything else getting close.


SILLY SALMON ran well first up at Flemington when a 1.5L 3rd to Madame Du Gast and Elite Icon (who has won by 4.25L at Moonee Valley since), that is really good form - that run rated -3.8, which is the clear best last start rating and clear best peak rating. In addition, his two runs last preparation rated +3.9 and +6.2, so there is no doubt that he is the one to beat. The only potential query is the step up to 1200m.


Think BRITISH COLUMBIA is quite smart though - completely ignore his debut run, a lot went wrong. Has been jumping out super and expecting a really nice return here.


Going to back in our gut and initial thoughts and go with BRITISH COLUMBIA here, who has jumped out too well for us not to have something on. Playing SP and looking for a drift late - SILLY SALMON is going to be hard to beat but think he can do it.

We have a Bonus Back offer with UniBet for BRITISH COLUMBIA, who will give us up to $50 back in bonus bets if he comes 2nd or 3rd - you can bet here.


Pakenham, Race 2

Would've liked to be on HARMSWORTH but he's only had the one jump out after a long period off, so suspect he may need the run and certainly will need some luck and a very good ride from barrier 12 of 12.

CREME DE LA BONNE couldn't have jumped out better and looks one of the main winning chances as he resumes at the home track - of her three career runs (that were all 2nd's), her best ratings were +5.6 and +6.9.

O'LUCKY has also jumped out well and brings in the best last start rating at +2.1 - with barrier 5 and Damian Lane on board, he will go forward and take some catching.


No bet race for us - hard to take ~$2.30 for CREME DE LA BONNE with O'LUCKY in the race, who's also short at ~$2.60 and that's without taking into consideration HARMSWORTH, who's also in the market at ~$5.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 4.50 units.


Kilmore, Race 1

STARZ BARWON ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $4.00 (TAB - bet here or Bet365 - bet here)

ZOUHOPE ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $4.60 (Bet365 - bet here)


Pakenham, Race 1

BRITISH COLUMBIA ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +13.49 units at Recommend Price | +50.77 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY

Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!


She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!


We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...


UPDATE (27 Jan, 2022): she is currently getting broken in at Coolmore's breaking-in program.


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