BlackBook - Thursday, 8 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 8 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

WARRNAMBOOL - Race 8

OTHER

Now with his third stable in Nick Ryan, the 5yo gelding #5 ZION moved really well in Heat 13 on Nov 25 as he just cruised to the line under no jockey pressure.

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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners	Confidence - Comments
Warrnambool, Race 8
#5 ZION (4) - N Ryan	Low/Medium. He's now with his third stable having bled from both nostrils last start but looks to be flying at the jump outs ahead of his return and his best is certainly good enough to be winning this. Don't have a lot of confidence considering it's been over a year since his last win, but his jump outs have been too good to ignore and going to back him at the ~$4 mark but we'll be ½ staking (collect 2%/2 units).

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Warrnambool, Race 2 #3 RICH PARIS (4) - A Chambers	BlackBook jump out comments: We had RICH PARIS prior to her debut where she was slowly away and only marginally beaten when coming home strongly, running the 6th fastest L400m/L200m of the meeting. Given more time, she returned in Heat 3 on Nov 7 for a strong win where she left the gates beautifully, led them up and went to line under a very strong hold. Lovely first jump out back so we’ll follow her into (hopefully) another prior to the first up run. No bet recommended - can't back her off only 1x JO with 4-weeks since that JO, especially at $2.50, it's just not a high percentage bet and she can win without us. It certainly wouldn't surprise to see her win here, but it's just not a set up we like.
Wyong, Race 4 #6 RAMONES (12) - J Pride	BlackBook trial comments: RAMONES has finished 2nd in all three career starts, but he’s got some fair form coming from all those races now. He was 2nd on debut to Kibou (with a 2.3L gap to 3rd) before running 2nd to Eponymous (3rd since won) and Contemporary, all of whom are nice horses. He made the switch from Allan Denham to Joseph Pride following his first two runs, so he only had the one start for J Pride, which was mid prep, before being given more time. He returned for his first full full preparation for J Pride on Nov 18 where he faded to finish last, but put in a much better performance in Heat 15 on Nov 28 as he sat outside the leader and was strong late over the 800m, clocking the clear fastest time of the morning. No bet recommended.

Warrnambool, Race 2

#3 RICH PARIS (4) - A Chambers

BlackBook jump out comments:

We had RICH PARIS prior to her debut where she was slowly away and only marginally beaten when coming home strongly, running the 6th fastest L400m/L200m of the meeting. Given more time, she returned in Heat 3 on Nov 7 for a strong win where she left the gates beautifully, led them up and went to line under a very strong hold. Lovely first jump out back so we’ll follow her into (hopefully) another prior to the first up run.

No bet recommended - can't back her off only 1x JO with 4-weeks since that JO, especially at $2.50, it's just not a high percentage bet and she can win without us. It certainly wouldn't surprise to see her win here, but it's just not a set up we like.

Wyong, Race 4

#6 RAMONES (12) - J Pride

BlackBook trial comments:

RAMONES has finished 2nd in all three career starts, but he’s got some fair form coming from all those races now. He was 2nd on debut to Kibou (with a 2.3L gap to 3rd) before running 2nd to Eponymous (3rd since won) and Contemporary, all of whom are nice horses. He made the switch from Allan Denham to Joseph Pride following his first two runs, so he only had the one start for J Pride, which was mid prep, before being given more time. He returned for his first full full preparation for J Pride on Nov 18 where he faded to finish last, but put in a much better performance in Heat 15 on Nov 28 as he sat outside the leader and was strong late over the 800m, clocking the clear fastest time of the morning.

No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 8:28am on Thursday, 8th December 2022.

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 700x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC

'Other' Runners: 1081x runners | 262x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $11.98 WIN $2.99 PLC

Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 75x runners | 31x wins (41%) & 19x placings (67%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 66x runners | 12x wins (18%) & 23x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)

STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.

Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".

This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.

We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart

.pdf

Download PDF • 920KB