BlackBook - Thursday, 7 July 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 7 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
CANTERBURY - Race 1
Superb return trial from #4 HELL I AM, winning Heat 10 on Jun 28 by 2.36L in the second fastest 736m time of the morning behind Leo and only 0.57s off the fastest 736m time we have recorded. The way in which he won wasomcertainly the most impressive part, jumping beautifully but electing to take a sit in the back half of the field while wide throughout. He showed a lovely turn of foot in the straight to go past the leaders with ease when only slightly asked for an effort from Hugh Bowman. A $150K 2021 MM Gold Coast Yearling purchase, this was a lovely return.
CRANBOURNE - Race 1
Keen to see #5 RIVER RIBBLE resume and hopefully go through the grades. After finishing 2nd in a Jun 10 jump out, he put together a really impressive bit of work to win Heat 2 on Jun 24. He settled at the rear of a small field, before swooping in the straight and closing superbly with ease. He was 2nd to Merchant Prince on debut with subsequent winners Sir Bailey and Water Bomber in 3rd and 4th prior to his second up run behind the Blue Diamond hopefuls. He looked to do so without his blinkers too, so some nice jump outs ahead of his resumption.
CRANBOURNE - Race 7
OXLEY ROAD won Heat 6 on Jun 22 in the clear fastest time of the morning, but it was the work of #1 BATTLEGROUND who was 0.5L back in 2nd (with a 5L gap to 3rd) that caught the eye. He had the benefit of some race fitness with him resuming off a 10-week let up after two runs this prep, but Oxley Road is a Group 1 sprinter while this 5yo gelding will be heading to a mid-week BM64.
Confidence - Comments
Canterbury, Race 1
#4 HELL I AM (7) - J O'Shea
He's only had the 1x trial but it was absolutely super - does resume on a very wet Heavy(10) track but was 2nd last start on a Heavy(9) so should handle it okay.
The clear horse to beat, just can't be taking sub-$1.90 with these conditions - if you're backing, would recommend ½ staking.
Cranbourne, Race 1
#5 RIVER RIBBLE (5) - A & S Freedman
Finds a winnable race first up - has the race experience (with nice form) along with 2x lovely JO's ahead of his return. Should go very very close here if he's come back improved - just can't have him as short as ~$1.70 so won't be backing unless he gets out closer to $2.50. Expect him or Exonumia to win this.
Cranbourne, Race 7
#1 BATTLEGROUND (2) - K Harris
Should go forward from barrier 2 and either lead or sit just behind the leaders - JO was absolutely superb and he goes very well fresh (first up 5:1-3-1) - it's an even race and he looks a nice E/W chance.
Last Updated: 8:19am on Thursday, 7th July 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
669x runners | 201x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.31 PLC
873x runners | 194x winners (22%) & 238x placings (49%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.03 WIN $3.14 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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