BlackBook - Thursday, 7 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 7 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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KILMORE - Race 1

OTHER

#1 HENTY was quite disappointing in his first 3x career runs, his best finish being 6th on a Heavy8 track at Bendigo second up. The 3yo has now been gelded and returned on Mar 16 where he was clearly the fastest away out of the gates but was ridden with no urgency and dropped to the back of the field, cruising under a hold and never really getting into it. He then popped up in Heat 7 on Mar 30 where he was instead allowed to stride to the front to lead and never looked like losing. He was asked for a slight effort at the top of the straight but he did it easily and clocked the second fastest 1000m time of the morning in the process. Would expect him to open a big price first up and would think he’s worth a spec now as a gelding.


KILMORE - Race 8

OTHER

#2 JACK OF IT jumped beautifully and went straight to the front in Heat 2 on Mar 25 over the 1000m, leading from start to finish after travelling under a hold throughout and had the 63-rated Storm’s Colours covered quite easily. The 4yo gelding has only had the 3-starts, so he’s still lightly raced and has improvement to come. This is his second jump out following a quiet Mar 11 jump out and he looks to be one to keep an eye on first up in his second career preparation.


PAKENHAM - Race 4

OTHER

#1 CLYDEBANK ROBBER closed super over the concluding stages of Heat 5 on Mar 10, the flashy 3yo colt coming from a long way back down the middle of the track to get up on the line. Looking at his breeding too, he’s out of the mare Lacey Underall who was quite a talented mare herself having won the Group 2 Adelaide Cup over 3200m. Only his first jump out this preparation, but he’s one to keep an eye on.


#11 MISS STEIGLITZ missed the start by a long way but still managed to work her way into 3rd place under a strong hold in Heat 9 on Mar 21, only 3L off the winner. The 3yo daughter of Sir Prancealot is a half-sister to Miss Iano who was 4th in a Group 2 for Mark Webb. The heat was ran in the slowest of the 850m heats and this was only her first jump out, so she’s one to monitor.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kilmore, Race 1 - HENTY

SENEGALIA certainly deserves to be favourite and is the one to beat, but think the race opens up past her and even then, don't think she's an odds-on chance. From her first up run, the two that beat her home have since ran 2nd (in a BM58) and 3rd (in a MDN) with that run rating +7.5 and is the second best last start rating of the race.


Think HENTY can run a bold race first up as a gelding. He's drawn barrier 5 in a race with not much speed, so he can go forward and give a good sight. Especially at the price, happy to have a small low confidence bet to find out if he can run to his jump outs. Playing ½ at the fixed odds this morning and ½ at the SP for a total outlay of 0.50 units.


Kilmore, Race 8 - JACK OF IT

JACK OF IT's three runs last preparation rated +4.3, +3.3 and +0.7, all of which would be the best last start rating of this race... so a replica of either of those runs has him hard to beat here.

He resumes here on the back of two jump outs, the latest a really nice bit of work at Kilmore over the 1000m where he was way too good.


The worry here is the 64kg, which is a big weight to carry but the race is quite poor so it might not matter - he's the one to beat. LET'S GET ANIMAL looks potentially capable of running well here on the back of 2x nice and quiet jump outs - maybe worth a saver bet?


Pakenham, Race 4 - CLYDEBANK ROBBER & MISS STEIGLITZ

The scratchings of IS THIS LOVE and FEUDAL EMPIRE really open this race up and gives early backers $0.55 to $0.60 worth of deductions... it also leaves AMPERE as a short priced favourite, who was good on Feb 28 behind Tsugaru (since 2nd BM64) but then only fair in good company on Mar 15 - D Lane on is a good sign but wasn't convinced and not sure how she is a $1.40 chance despite an ordinary race?


We have the 2x runners in this race and they're at big prices. CLYDEBANK ROBBER has only had the one jump out ahead of his debut here and while he's well bred, he's certainly bred to get out over further. MISS STEIGLITZ's first jump out was the eye catcher while the latest was probably just okay despite running in limited room throughout.


Outside of the two favourites, our two runners look the next best chances so going to have a play on both runners for an even return and an overall outlay of 0.50 units.



BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

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OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Kilmore, Race 1

HENTY ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $9.50 (TAB) or $10.00 (BetRight)

HENTY ~ 0.25 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Kilmore, Race 8

JACK OF IT ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $3.40 (Bet365) or $3.30 (TAB or TopSport)


Pakenham, Race 4

CLYDEBANK ROBBER ~ 0.15 units WIN @ $31.00 (TopSport)

MISS STEIGLITZ ~ 0.35 units WIN @ $14.00 (TopSport)


If you haven't yet seen, we've had an early bet at Caulfield on Saturday --> check it out here.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +8.16 units at Recommend Price | +42.21 units at Betfair SP

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