BlackBook - Thursday, 6 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 6 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
MORNINGTON - Race 1
#8 BAY THIRTEEN (16) - M Laurie
BAY THIRTEEN is travelling super and is going to be hard to beat first up. As previously mentioned, she was 2nd to Mornington Glory in a Sep 5 official trial in a super bit of work and her win in Heat 7 on Sep 21 over 900m was every bit as impressive. She’s got a stack of speeding, sitting outside the leader here before showing a super turn of foot late to put a massive gap on the field and win in the second fastest time of the morning behind Giga Kick. She was a $100k Inglis Classic Yearling Sale purchase in 2021 and Matt Laurie recently purchased her half-sister by Astern for $130k at the 2022 Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sales, so he clearly has an opinion of her and the family and on the back of these jump outs, we expect her to go very well first up. Nice filly.
OTHER
WHAT YOU NEED (pink) was the star of Heat 12 on Sep 19, winning by a couple of lengths over the 760m. There was a big gap to 3rd here with the 2nd placed horse being #6 DENSITY, a 2-start maiden for Price & Kent Jnr having come down from NSW. The 3yo colt would’ve won this heat comfortably if it weren’t for a superstar in What You Need, but it’s good to use him as a guide and on the back of this in addition to his 2nd placing in a Sep 5 jump out, he looks to have more than enough talent to win a maiden here. A son of Spirit Of Boom that was a $500k Magic Millions buy and is still a colt, there must still be some expectations on what he can achieve on the race track.
MORNINGTON - Race 2
#9 BREAKING GROUND (6) - C Waller
Quite keen on BREAKING GROUND this preparation and really hoping he goes to an easy kill maiden first up. He was our Top Performer following his Aug 26 but his work again in Heat 4 on Sep 9 was super. He jumped super out of the gates, pushing forward to get an easy lead along the rail before opening up an easy gap on Barretta, who goes alright himself. He’s got the race experience already and if he can draw a barrier first up and show that gate speed, he can take up a more prominent position where he’ll be hard to beat in most maidens. Keen to follow this colt.
OTHER
#4 SONGAA debuted as a $2.50 SP at Geelong but could only manage 5th of 7 that day. There has been some handy enough form come from that race, with Barclay’s Bank (2nd) winning a MDN and BM58 at his next two starts, Night Of Mayhem (3rd) since running 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd and 1st in MDN’s, Juice Box (4th) since stringing together a trio of wins in a MDN, BM58 and BM70, and even 6th and 7th have since won MDN’s. He’s been gelded since that run, returning for a pair of jump outs on Aug 10 and Aug 29 that were hard to get a real gauge on, but his win in Heat 13 on Sep 12 over the 1000m was clearly his best bit of work and looks in good order ahead of his return to the races. Hoping they look at a 1400m maiden first up for him.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
The time was below average for the morning, but #3 HIGHLAND GIRL certainly passed the eye test in her win in Heat 6 on Sep 21. The 3yo filly travelled 3-wide on speed throughout before unleashing a super turn of foot late to win by a few lengths. She’s had the 3x jump outs now ahead of her return, the first over only 600m on Aug 31 but her second at the official Cranbourne trials on Sep 5 was also super when 2nd to Ferlazzo, who ran really well first up behind Sunzou. She ran super on debut when 4-wide no cover the trip but managing to close well into 3rd, where we’ve seen subsequent winners come from the race in the form of Eros (2nd) and The Guava (4th). She doesn’t have the most punter friendly get back and run on racing pattern, but some nice jump outs and debut form will have her in good stead upon her return.
#4 HOLLER VALANCE is hopefully one that slips under the radar a little following a couple of handy jump outs. His first jump out on Aug 23 saw him go to the rear of the field and cruise to the line down the middle of the track, finishing 2nd to Helpmebrutha, a subsequent maiden winner at Moe. He took a different approach in Heat 12 on Sep 7, jumping straight to the front, leading throughout before being put under pressure around the bend. He was nabbed on the line, but he was put away late over the concluding stages and this will certainly bring him on for debut. Hopefully he can find a weaker maiden on debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
​Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Mornington, Race 1 | It looks a race between our two runners here - have DENSITY just ahead of BAY THIRTEEN due to the barrier. We'll look to play late and see if we can back both or back DENSITY and save on BAY THIRTEEN. It's a bit of a tricky one. |
#6 DENSITY (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr | Medium. He's drawn beautifully here with barrier 2 and Ben Melham on board. He's got nice enough form from his first 2x career runs in NSW and has jumped out well in VIC ahead of his return - he looks the top winning hope. |
#8 BAY THIRTEEN (11) - M Laurie | Medium. If she had a low barrier, she would be awfully hard to beat as she will almost certainly go forward and attempt to lead. The barrier makes it tricky, but she will likely be handle bars down to go to the front and if she can cross, she will be hard to chase down. |
Mornington, Race 2 | Backing BREAKING GROUND and saving on SONGAA. |
#4 SONGAA (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr | Low/Medium. His jump outs have been good and he should be forward enough having had the 3x of them - Ben Melham takes the ride but he's drawn a little sticky with barrier 10 and this is a nice maiden. Looks more an E/W chance than a winning chance (or at least a saver for Breaking Ground) but a win wouldn't shock. |
#9 BREAKING GROUND (5) - C Waller | High. He's been scratched from several races, likely looking for good ground and a half decent barrier. We have loved his jump outs and always been a fan, he gets his chance to show his talent here. Very happy the stablemate was scratched as it now looks like Nickelback is the only other major danger - happy to be with our colt though, think he's smart. |
Mornington, Race 3 | |
#3 HIGHLAND GIRL (7) - M Laurie | Medium. Her form from the debut run (when very wide) is good, the jump outs have been good, Ben Melham is a good booking and she's drawn well. This looks a nice kick off point for her and she looks the top winning chance. Don't want to be taking sub-$2.50 for her though so will be waiting until the jump to be playing. |
#4 HOLLER VALANCE (8) - J McArdle | Low/Medium. We were on her on debut and she should've won (don't watch the replay). She'll be much improved second up and at $12+, she's a good bet here and we don't have to outlay much for a return. |
Last Updated: 8:33am on Thursday, 6th October 2022.
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Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
'Other' Runners:
1012x runners | 238x winners (24%) & 277x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.36 WIN $3.05 PLC
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STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB