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BlackBook - Thursday, 6 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 6 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

#6 ACQUARELLO featured following her Mar 14 jump out alongside all non-maidens such as Charming Di, backing it up with her work in Heat 14 on Mar 28. The 3yo daughter of Written Tycoon cruised throughout before then coming home really nicely as those around her were pushed out, doing it quite easily under her own steam in a really nice bit of work. It’s hard not to be impressed with her work although she hasn’t been fully tested yet so we don’t yet know whats under the bonnet, but she’s a filly we can follow on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 1

#6 ACQUARELLO (6) - T Busuttin & N Young

Low/Medium.

AOLANI ran the meetings 4th fastest L600m/400m and fastest L200m on debut - she got way too far back in a small field but closed well late. She sticks at 1200m and has drawn barrier 3 but likely spots them a start again, although the big Pakenham straight will certainly suit.

KIKO is third up now having ran 3rd and 2nd in two runs this prep - she’ll be peaking here and will almost certainly be in the finish again. She also has some good form coming from that latest run with 3rd and 4th both since winning.


ACQUARELLO has jumped out super on multiple occasions, the first alongside some solid horses with the latest over 1000m where she was way too strong late under minimal pressure. They paid $400k for this daughter of Written Tycoon with her full-siblings going for $300k (2019) and $675k (2022), so no shortage of expectation form a $ perspective and think she should be running well here on the back of those JO’s.


KIKO is the one to beat, but we're going to be with this filly in ACQUARELLO to beat her.

We're ½ staking here but having a bet.

Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Thursday, 6th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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