Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 5 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Other" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BENALLA - Race 2
OTHER #10 STATESWOMAN has put together a pair of nice jump out wins now, taking out Heat 12 on Dec 30 following her Dec 16 win. The 3yo Churchill filly went straight to the front in her first JO and led from start to finish, doing similar in her latest JO but travelling very wide throughout as she just cruised to the line. She clocked slick time in the process and looks a nice moving filly.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS
Confidence - Comments
Benalla, Race 2
#10 STATESWOMAN (6) - M & L Kavanagh
This is quite a winnable race post-scratchings and while she has had no market support ($4 out to $9 in early markets), she can still run a cheeky race following those nice JO's with a nice draw of barrier 5. She looks a genuine E/W chance.
Playing ½ this morning at $6 and ½ at SP (as she has had no support so likely drifts).
Benalla, Race 4
#7 MIDNIGHT GLOW (9) - J Salanitri
This gelding ran super first up over 1300m at Wangaratta. He jumped really well with the leaders but somehow shuffled all the way back to third last where he did it tough with minimal room and some bumping but once he got clear int he straight, he powered home in the meetings 2nd fastest L200m of the meeting. He also lost a plate during the race.
In his debut prep, his best runs came over 1400m-1600m, so the step up from 1300m to 1600m more than suits and he looks very well placed here second up.
We should be on at the $3.50 (even $3+) yesterday when we sent through a message in Telegram, if you're not on, play the SP as he's ~$2.20 now.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - OTHER
Wagga, Race 5
#12 RUMOURS ABOUND (10) - R Stubbs
BlackBook jump out comments:
RUMOURS ABOUND had a pair of trials in Albury at the start of December for mixed results, finishing last by 11.09L in her first trial but winning her latest trial ahead of Royston Head (since 2nd in MDN). She put in her third bit of work in as many weeks, winning Heat 3 on Dec 21 comfortably where she led and opened up a gap late when put under pressure. Mindful that she beat no quality opposition here, but she can’t do much more than this and is ready to go to the races.
No bet recommended.
Last Updated: 7:01am (QLD) on Thursday, 5th January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1124x runners | 276x winners (25%) & 310x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.13 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 45x runners | 27x wins (60%) & 12x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 93x runners | 38x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 84x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 25x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):