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BlackBook - Thursday, 4 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 4 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

The Star Witness colt, #2 FAST WITNESS was clearly the slowest away early in Heat 6 on Jul 4, having to take a sit in behind the speed along the rail where he then ran into plenty of traffic. He still did a super job over the closing stages to change his course of run a few times under the guidance of Jye McNeil yet still close well once he got off heels and into clear air. He He handled the Heavy track well here and in his prior jump out on Jun 14 when 2nd to Sollozzo and looks to be a nice moving colt with nice closing speed.


CRANBOURNE - Race 2

OTHER

#16 SOCIABEEL showed a lovely turn of foot over the concluding stages of Heat 7 on Jul 25, winning well over the 1000m. The 3yo filly sat midfield while 3-wide with cover throughout this heat, before peeling out and coming over the top to win. She showed a lovely turn of foot in her 800m jump out on Jul 11, closing super down the very outside of the track to win comfortably, albeit not beating anything of quality in either of her jump outs. A $330k daughter of Savabeel, connections will be hoping she can live up to those expectations in her second career prep.


CRANBOURNE - Race 7

OTHER

#10 CAVELLITA had no right to be near the finish of Heat 2 on Jul 18, let along winning the heat. The 3yo filly was having her first jump out back this prep, noting that she didn’t have the blinkers on here, jumping well but being very (!) slow into stride as she drifted ~5L off the second last horse as they rounded the bend. She came out wide and rocketed home to get up and win over the 990m. Monitoring where this filly heads to, especially with her blinkers back on as she certainly appreciates the head gear.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Cranbourne, Race 1

#2 FAST WITNESS (5) - C Maher & D Eustace

High.

We have to mention this colt again - he ran 2nd on debut to Atmosphere when defeating Street Conqueror by 0.7L who then won by 2.8L with American Liaison 2nd, who was 5th in that debut race. They ran 1:06.10s vs 1:16.11s for Ashlor's BM70 win later that day + he was 3-wide with no cover the trip. Handled the Heavy track fine that day so expect him to do the same today.

Expecting plenty of improvement now second up and he is the clear one to beat - should go very well here.


Play him late, the $1.60 is getting a touch short and we might get better closer to the jump.

Cranbourne, Race 2

#16 SOCIABEEL (4) - T Busuttin & N Young

Low/Medium.

She makes the field as the 4th emergency due to the Heavy(8) track, of which she handled well at the JO's and she's out of an NZ mare. She'll get out over further, so the 1200m is a slight query - she'll need to settle midfield or better here to get the best chance of winning.

JO's have been super in nice time so happy to be with her - going to play ½ now and ½ on SP as she likely drifts closer to the jump.

Cranbourne, Race 7

#10 CAVELLITA (13) - J Moloney

Low.

Straight to 1600m first up on the back of 1x 990m JO isn't usually a recipe for success - the JO was super though but she can't get back that far here. If backing, look to have a tiny spec at a big price but not expecting her to win - would take a very good performance.

Last Updated: 8:30am on Thursday, 4th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

672x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 212x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

925x runners | 206x winners (22%) & 255x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.80 WIN $3.11 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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