BlackBook - Thursday, 31 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 31 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KYNETON - Race 3

OTHER

It was a star studded Heat 12 on Mar 22, including group runners such as Savatoxl, Crystal Bound and Capriccio. In 3rd place though was a 1-start maiden, #2 BELLE ET RICHE who closed really well from the back of the field and hit the line with pace. The 3yo filly was quietly ridden in an earlier Mar 9 jump out when 2nd but it was this bit of work that was certainly the most impressive. She’s a huge watch first up in her second career preparation.


We were keen on #11 WHYWHYWHYDELILAH on debut where she started $2.25 but was disappointing… she then stepped up to 1200m second up at $21 and ran a lot better, finishing 3rd to a talented Our Heidi with Cherrypick 2nd who came out and won next start. Given time, she returned to finish a quiet 4th in Heat 5 on Mar 11 behind some more experienced gallopers in Little Stevie and New York Baby in an encouraging jump out. She looks to have come back a better horse this prep but we’ll wait for another jump out before diving in.

*she's had a more recent Geelong jump out on Mar 24 but the vision is hard to see and it's hard to get a gauge on her*


PAKENHAM - Race 4

OTHER

#6 STAR PATROL had the better of Realeza in Heat 8 on Mar 21, with the 3yo gelding coming down to VIC (potentially to avoid the rain) following 2x trial wins in NSW. The 3yo gelding is a 6x start maiden with only the 3x placings, but this was a lovely bit of work as he clocked the second fastest time of the morning in the process. Big watch on him first up if he stays in VIC.


OTHER RUNNERS - NSW TRIALS

Newcastle, Race 3 - #1 STROMBUS (4)

Mar 18 (Randwick - Soft7) - he’ll be ready to go first up on the back of these - not worried about the slow time as he was out the back and time was dictated by those up the front and he still made ground on them - he dropped to the back of the field and travelled under a very strong hold throughout before getting the gaps in the straight and cruise over the top of the field to just miss on the line - super bit of work.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kyneton, Race 3 - BELLE ET RICHE

Keen on this 3yo filly here. She had the one start back in August at Moe on a Heavy9 track where she simply should've won - she was held up from the 400m to the 250m mark (and probably even more) where she clocked the meetings L600m/400m and the 2nd fastest L200m behind Holt. The run rated +1.1, which is the best last start rating and the best peak rating of this race and a repeat of that performance (maybe with a little more luck) will see her be very hard to beat here.


She draw's barrier 8 of 15, but there are 4x emergencies so we'll get only the 11 runners post scratchings, so the widish barrier is a good result as she should get some clear galloping this time in. Her jump outs this time in have been super, especially the latest behind Savatoxl which was super.


LET FLY brings in the second best last start rating (+6.1) and the second best peak rating (+2.5), which will need improvement upon. We were keen on WHYWHYWHYDELILAH last preparation and she was pretty disappointing. Her Flemington jump out was nice, without being a standout, but her more recent Geelong jump out is inconclusive. Might look at a saver bet on her.


Keen to back BELLE ET RICHE here, think she's going to be hard to beat.


Hopefully a few of us got the $4.60 (or $4.20) that was available on Bet365 yesterday afternoon when we posted - she was well backed into $3.20 and now into ~$3 race morning. If you didn't back, look to play ½ on Fixed at ~$3+ and the other ½ at the SP to hedge your bets instead of being locked into one fixed price if she drifts, or the SP if she gets smashed (hoping she does). There are no deductions on Bet365 so very happy with the $4.60 we locked in.


Pakenham, Race 4 - STAR PATROL

Last preparation STAR PATROL had the 5x starts with 4x of them rating between +2.2 and +4.6, while his last start rated +8.0 with that rating being the second best last start rating despite it being an 'outlier' of that preparation (ratings wise).

GOLDEN VIRTINE started $2.90 SP on debut at Sandown over 1300m but was a bit disappointing after sitting outside the leader throughout in a small field - he had every chance there. Steps back now from 1300m to 1200m second up after a 4-week freshen up with that debut run rating -0.6, which is the clear best last start rating and the best peak rating. Blinkers come off while the nose roll and tongue tie go on, of which the stable will be hoping for some improvement but that debut run left more questions than answers.


STAR PATROL can (and should) run well here - he showed a lovely turn of foot when asked for an effort in his jump out and on the back of that with D Oliver booked to ride, he's probably the one to beat. Realeza has come from the jump out and since won a BM64 first up.


He's drifted a bit and we can now get $3+ so happy to take that for ½ of our stake and put the other ½ on at the SP, but the ~$3 looks about right. He's got the race experience, race form, jump out form, senior jockey booking and a lovely barrier - ideal set up and everything points to him running well here.


BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 4.00 units.


Kyneton, Race 3

BELLE ET RICHE ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $4.60 (Bet365)


Pakenham, Race 4

STAR PATROL ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $3.20 (TopSport)

STAR PATROL ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +10.25 units at Recommend Price | +44.54 units at Betfair SP

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