Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 30 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MOE - Race 1
#6 BAEKDU (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
BAEKDU clocked the second fastest time of the morning in her Heat 9 win on Sep 15. She jumped beautifully, cruised up to the lead and did it easy to win by a couple lengths. She had a pair of jump outs in May, the most impressive a May 18 win alongside Cardinal Gem who then came out and finished 2nd in a MDN and then won second up. He’s better than maiden grade and will be competitive on debut.
This was a huge win by BAEKDU in Heat 3 on Sep 21 (yellow). Following her slick Sep 15 jump out, she was clearly a class above the field here as she won the heat by some 10L in the fastest time of the morning, handling the Heavy(10) track easily. As mentioned previously, she had a pair of jump outs in May, the most impressive a May 18 win alongside Cardinal Gem who then came out and finished 2nd in a MDN and then won second up. Following her into her debut.
Putting a big watch on the winner of Heat 8 on Aug 31, the Shane Stockdale runner under the breeding PALENTINO x DOWAGER GIRL (NZ). The colt was 2nd to Blistering on Apr 13 who was 4L off Gimmie Par on debut.
#4 OUR BEST PAL is the un-named Palentino runner from an Aug 31 jump out win that we wanted to put a big watch on. The 3yo colt returned to the jump outs to win Heat 2 on Sep 14 ahead of the stakes placed Way To Go Paula, albeit ridden out and in the slowest of the 5x heats that morning. He showed some early speed here to lead and we think he might have the talent to be competitive on debut.
#12 BLISTERING showed talent prior to her debut at Caulfield where she led but was overran late with the winner (Gimmie Par) going on to win the Group 3 Quezette in early August. Returning here, she took out Heat 1 on Sep 14 as she led from start to finish and showed a nice kick around the bend to win comfortably, albeit over only 675m but did run a very slick time. Keen to see where she goes as John Pascoe (as the trainer and sole owner) has an opinion on her.
MOE - Race 2
#7 PINSTRIPED (10) - E Jusufovic
Looks as though Enver might have another smart one on his hands. After winning an Aug 23 jump out over 800m, the 3yo colt under the breeding STREET BOSS x SNITZEL BLITZ was a class above as he cruised to a win in Heat 10 on Sep 6. He jumped beautifully, pushed forward whilst being heavily restrained and then was allowed a bit more room to gallop in the straight as he extended away from the field. He went to the line with another un-named Alderson horse, but they gapped 3rd massively and he was pulled up on the line. He looks to move really well, very keen to see where he goes on debut.
Keen on PINSTRIPED. He featured in our reviews under his breeding Street Boss x Snitzel Blitz, but the 3yo colt now has a name and another impressive jump out win to add to his form. He won Heat 5 on Sep 20 in the fastest time of morning to back up his Aug 23 and Sep 6 wins, this heat the most impressive of the three as he went to the line and defeated Hungry Heart’s little brother Duty Dynasty, a 3yo colt who already has a win to his name and some residual race fitness coming off only a 10 week let up. Confident he will run a big race on debut.
A watch on both #9 RIVERINA CYCLONE and HOLLERFORADOLLAR who finished 1st and 2nd in Heat 4 on Sep 8 and went to the line together, both under no pressure. It was HOLLERFORADOLLAR’s first jump out while it was #9 RIVERINA CYCLONE’s second jump out having faded in an Aug 25 (black) jump out behind Ranveer. Thought both these runners closed well and we want to be following to see where they end up.
MOE - Race 3
#9 FACE THE JURY jumped out well prior to debut and probably was only fair when 5th. Given a freshen up, she jumped out in Heat 14 on Sep 20 with a huge win in slick time, noting that she did have the race fitness and was listed under Julien Welsh so potentially has some barrier issues. Regardless, an encouraging bit of work between runs and could be one to follow second up at hopefully a nice price.
MOE - Race 9
Bit of pace early from Black Opal and Nankervis in Heat 6 on Sep 15, where #7 BELLA ROYALE just dropped to the back before being given a push over the final stages to fly around the outside of the field and get up and win. She was pushed out, but showed a nice turn of foot. She can win a BM58 first up.
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS
Moe, Race 1 - BAEKDU (OUR BEST PAL & BLISTERING)
Quite happy with the scratchings of several of our other runners and makes this race playable. We are left with only two raced horses, one of those being BLISTERING who brings in a really nice last start benchmark rating where she led but was overran by Gimmie Par to finish 4th by 4.3L. That kind of race more than stacks up here and this is her home track. BAEKDU has jumped out super, but not sure she's jumped out well enough to take $1.80 on a bog track at Moe. OUR BEST PAL a small chance at a big price only, but not confident.
BLISTERING is speedy and think she'll have enough speed to lead here and be hard to chase down - have her on top at the price with BAEKDU the second pick. Expect one of these two to win.
We'll back BLISTERING (~$6) in early markets and wait for BAEKDU as the $1.80 is way too short - if BAEKDU drifts to more of a $2.50 - $3 chance, then we can at least save on her to breakeven + some profit if she gets out further, just don't want to be losing on her (if we can).
Moe, Race 2 - PINSTRIPED (& RIVERINA CYCLONE)
Think we might see a smart one debut here in PINSTRIPED. His jump outs have been first class and super keen to be with him. This is a winnable race and at the $2.60 (closer to $3 with a boost) currently available, we think that's a good price to take. Saving on RIVERINA CYCLONE (~$12) to breakeven as our other runner.
Moe, Race 3 - FACE THE JURY
Not sure why TALENT QUEST hasn't got the blinkers yet? Drops back to 1117m here (which will suit) and has barrier 2 which is a perfect barrier for him to take up the lead. His last start 3rd reads well with 2nd Frostick since winning and he gapped 4th by 4L that day but was beaten by 4.75L himself. He'll go forward and take a lot of catching.
Have FACE THE JURY as an E/W chance. The $5 looks okay, but we'll wait until closer to the jump to have a bet - small confidence.
Moe, Race 9 - BELLA ROYALE
We get the BM58 first up that we wanted following the jump out, but she's untested on Heavy ground and Moe always seems to be a bit more testing than the normal track when Heavy.
Not diving into the $2.50 - she's untested on Heavy track and is a big question mark for us. Happy to leave her and wait until closer to the jump - if she gets out to ~$3.50, we can have a small bet.
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