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BlackBook - Thursday, 30 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 30 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


KILMORE - Race 1

OTHER

#12 STATESWOMAN has a stack of speed and her work in Heat 2 on Mar 24 was no different, going straight to the front as she has done in all three of her career runs where she was way too speedy for some handy types such as Kazou. She’s coming off a 6-week let up so clearly has some residual fitness but this freshen up might do her a world of good as she has been able to hold on for that maiden win. Wouldn’t mind seeing her drop a touch in distance and if so, she’ll be in it a long way.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Kilmore, Race 1

#12 STATESWOMAN (6) - M & L Kavanagh

High.

She has led in all three of her career runs and we don’t expect that to change here with Craig Newitt on board from barrier 6.

Adding to that, she drops back from a 1500m run (1300m and 1100m before that) to 1200m here following a 6-week let up and a nice jump out win where she also led from start to finish.


Expect her to go straight to the front here and be awfully hard to catch.

She's started $2.15 and $2.80 in her last two starts, so expect her to start odds on here and happy to take $2+.

Pakenham, Race 4

#8 WILLIAMSTOWN (7) - R Blacker

Low/Medium.

His first JO on Jan 25 with the blinkers on was really nice alongside Lady Di Di who had placed 3 times prior to that jump out and subsequently won at her next start. He didn’t look as good as her but he certainly wasn’t as experienced.

His middle official trial wasn't great, but he was good to and through the line after getting a fair bit of urging - he was 3rd with the 2nd placed horse since winning and the 4th placed horse since running 2nd and 4th.

His third jump out came on Feb 22 and it was really nice again! He was held up and looked to be bolting behind Chico Sonado who came out and won at Sandown in impressive fashion. The 2rd horse in She Can Rock has since won as well.


His JO's were good and all around subsequent winners, which bodes well for his debut here. The $12+ looks over the odds and happy to bet at the price.

Pakenham, Race 5

#2 MORPHEUS BRAGI (8) - C Vidotto & C Beasy

Medium.

He started $9 SP first up at Moonee Valley where he was forced a touch wide late but still stuck on well to run 4th. That was a BM70 and he drops significantly back to BM58 grade here second up at Pakenham over 1200m, which is the same track and distance that he won at second up in his first career prep. He’s drawn a touch awkward with barrier 8 of 9, but out of the chute start that shouldn’t be too much of a worry and that win was on a Heavy track, so the wet should be no worries.


He’s much better than BM58 grade and happy to be with him here at the ~$3, think he starts shorter.

Last Updated: 7:34am AEDT on Thursday, 30th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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