BlackBook - Thursday, 30 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 30 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
WERRIBEE - Race 1
OTHER
#2 CROC LURKIN’ is another one Jamie Edwards looks to have going well. He took out Heat 3 on Dec 15 to back up his Dec 3 win ahead of National Choice and certainly looks to be travelling well enough to go well in a maiden first up upon his return. Not sure he handled the 1400m in his last start, so the 1000m-1100m that he finished 3rd and 2nd in might be more his go. Keep an eye out.
She wasn’t away the greatest, but #10 VAETTIR quickly mustered speed to take up the lead along the rail in Heat 6 on Dec 17 and then used the bend to kick away with ease and bolt in, being one of only two heats that were below 48.50s for the day where she clocked 47.58s while the other heat (47.53s) was the group performed Here To Shock and Rainbiel. The 3yo filly had a jump out back on Nov 9 where she finished last but it wasn’t that disappointing. This jump out though was very impressive. One to watch.
OUR THOUGHTS
Werribee, Race 1
This is a 2-horse race between our two BlackBook runners of CROC LURKIN' and VAETTIR following the scratching of LORD PARAMOUNT.
We'll ignore CROC LURKIN's last start run over 1400m as he is certainly better suited to the shorter courses, his rating on debut over 1000m being +8.1 and second up over 1100m being +3.5. These two are the clear picks of the field. VAETTIR is on debut and has jumped out well enough to be competitive.
AKKA'S METEOR jumped out okay on Dec 15 behind Exceedingly Magic and Curran, but has only jumped out once and it was over only 750m. The only jump outs we can see for GRINZINGER ROCKET are in September... they were fair at best.
They're only 'Other' runners, so we're going to have a small outlay and play CROC LURKIN' with a saver on VAETTIR. Siding with the race experience and form over the debutant. They're hard to split but happy to have an overall medium confidence bet on the race.
If you miss the prices, back VAETTIR to breakeven (return 1.50 units) with the remaining units to go on CROC LURKIN' for a total outlay of 1.50 units.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Werribee, Race 1
CROC LURKIN' ~ 1.05 units WIN @ $3.00 (TopSport) with $2.80 available elsewhere (Bet365 & more)
VAETTIR ~ 0.45 units WIN @ $3.50 (TopSport, TAB & more)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +30.48 units at Recommend Price | +57.75 units at Betfair SP
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