BlackBook - Thursday, 3 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 3 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
HAWKESBURY - Race 2
#7 WHINCHAT did a bit wrong on debut and was a touch unlucky where he clipped heels (almost fell over) and was held up for running at the top of the straight, still closing well into 3rd when clocking the meetings 7th fastest L200m. The 3yo Russian Revolution colt is now with David Pfieffer and has been wining trials for fun, taking out two trials in June/July prior to a 12-week let up where he resumed to win a 740m trial on Oct 7 and then following that up with a slick win in Trial 5 on Oct 17 over 1000m where he clocked the third fastest time of the morning at 59.19s. Keep an eye out for his return, he looks a big striding colt and if he can get the room to run (unlike his debut), he’ll go close to breaking the maiden very early this prep.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Hawkesbury, Race 2
#7 WHINCHAT (12) - D Pfieffer
He's been a bit of a trial star, winning 6 of 7 trials with his debut 3rd in between there, where he had excuses when blocked for a bit of a run.
Like that his latest trial was over 1000m, it alleviates that definite 'trial star' tag that we would've given him had they all of been over sub-800m (which he still is a bit). The horse that ran 2nd in that latest trial, Winston Hills, has since ran 2nd in a MDN too.
His debut rated well enough to be very competitive here, let alone if he's improved. The worry is barrier 12 of 12 but in an even race, happy to be backing him at that $4 quote this morning, that seems about right.
Can always back ½ now and ½ at SP.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Flemington, Race 2
#2 CHARM STONE (12) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
#12 EMPRESS OF WONDER (20) - A Neasham
Couple here that we listed in our 'Watch List' following some nice jump outs - tough race though so no recommended bets.
Our original BlackBook comments were:
We had CHARM STONE on top when she made her debut at Flemington a few weeks ago where she was heavily backed but just wasn’t quite good enough late when 3rd. Given a freshen up, her tick over jump out in Heat 4 on Oct 24 over 800m was absolutely super, extending over the L300m or so with a super turn of foot. She’ll likely head to one of the Flemington carnival 2yo races.
Winning Trial 10 on Oct 18 was EMPRESS OF WONDER in a super bit of work, coming from last to sneak up the inside and win quite effortlessly. A 2yo Choisir filly, she looks to have a turn of foot and put in a lovely performance for her first trial.
(she was also Dean's selection for Episode 12 of The Early Bird).
Last Updated: 8:05am on Thursday, 3rd November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 696x runners | 213x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.15 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1047x runners | 251x winners (24%) & 285x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 33x runners | 22x wins (67%) & 7x placings (88%)
Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 26x wins (44%) & 16x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 51x runners | 8x wins (16%) & 16x placings (47%)
Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):