BlackBook - Thursday, 3 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 3 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KYNETON - Race 1

OTHER

#1 CATALINA BLUE did a super job to weave in and out of traffic to win Heat 8 on Feb 21, making up a stack of ground in the straight and over the concluding stages after being slow in the early stages and sitting out the back. Her form has left a bit to be desired but she probably hasn’t had the best of luck. Maybe now she can put it all altogether and get that elusive maiden, at a really nice price.


We mentioned #4 MAHA’S CHOICE after jump outs prior to the first up run but she was very poor when finishing 10L off the winner after starting $3.40 - Liam Riordan reported that she didn’t feel right in her action and the run seems too bad to be true and she’s been given a 3-week freshen up as a result prior to returning to record a solid win in Heat 10 on Feb 21, despite the slow-ish time. Would be expecting a much better run second up.


#6 MESCHEVER was back at the jump outs after a 5-week freshen up, winning Heat 9 on Feb 18 and it look as though the nose roll went on here. He looked good here but probably wasn’t quite as slick as his jump outs prior to his debut. In saying that, we do think he has the talent to win a maiden and his form backs that up. His debut 2nd to Lord Paramount (since won BM58 by 4.2L) ahead of The Globe (since won MDN) certainly reads well and his second up run also reads well. The winner Grinzinger Prince has since won a BM64, while Mystery Eclipse (2nd) and Loudun (3rd) raced against each other next start when 2nd and 1st respectively and put a 2L gap on 3rd (Mystery Eclipse then won her next start after this) while 6th in Mr Freeze has also since won. Winners all around him, we’re following him into another maiden next start.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

The winner was race fit and the 2nd horse is a Group 3 winner in Sansom, and although #2 DOLLAR CHASER technically finished 5th of 6 runners in Heat 1 on Feb 15 over the 1000m, he was a lot better than that in his return. He missed the start by lengths, cruised up with his head down under a strong hold at the back of the field throughout and then once the heat was over, he got through the pack and was making ground on the two leaders. Lovely bit of work, keep an eye on another jump out but a 1000m maiden first up would be perfect (and hopefully a nice price).

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kyneton, Race 1 - MESCHEVER

Her first two career runs have rated +2.9 and +5.9, where either of those runs would be good enough to win this. Thought she had excuses at her last start too, she struggled to keep up early and had to come very wide before closing well in the straight to go down by 0.5L but only managed 4th - the first three across the line have all won since, including 6th as well. The nose roll goes on here, which she had in her latest jump out. Looks the top seed.


DIVINA CALLE was 3-wide without cover first up and tired a bit late, but she seemed to have every chance - Alana Kelly jumps on board from barrier 1 so expect her to go forward and either be leading or just behind the leader. Blinkers go on as well, which is a positive.

SILLMAN's Feb 16 was silly, he was always out the back and was running up arses in the straight - will be a huge price and have seen Conlan's horses come out and run well after these sorts of jump outs (e.g. Banderas).

MAHA'S CHOICE is becoming a jump out star, but expecting an improved run here second up.

CATALINA BLUE's latest jump out was super - she ran +4.5 first up last preparation, which would be good enough to go well here but likely gets back and looks to run on late.


Damien Thornton has been Simon Zahra's main rider and jumps off MESCHEVER here to ride CATALINA BLUE. Liam Riordan takes the ride who has had the 14 rides for Simon Zahra for 0 wins... which isn't the greatest sign but he's riding for Simon Zahra and we've always thought MESCHEVER was above average and we're happy to take ~$6+.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 1.00 units.


Kyneton, Race 1

MESHEVER ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $6.50 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -5.94 units at Recommend Price | +30.38 units at Betfair SP

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