BlackBook - Thursday, 3 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 3 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2

OTHER

Very interestingly was the second placed horse in Heat 1 on Jan 14 behind Yulong Command, the 4-start maiden in #6 LOVING ANGEL who probably would’ve won any other heat because of the time they ran. The 3yo filly went to the line alongside the likes of Swats That and Safe Passage and didn’t look out of placed. She’s one to keep an eye on as this was a nice first jump out back as she looks to resume in VIC.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

#3 IMPROVIDENT has been closing really well in his jump outs as he gears up for a return to the races. He closed super from back near last in a Jan 12 Sandown jump out, finishing 3rd to the break away leaders in the undefeated Unflinching and Signal (who should’ve won on debut). He did similar in Heat 5 on Jan 27, dropping back to a clear last before coming wide around the bend and closing super despite being under no pressure. He finished 2nd on debut before a disappointing 7th where Daniel Stackhouse said his action didn’t seem right. Given more time, he looks in good order ahead of his return. One to follow, but he might need to get out in distance.

Can’t win jump outs any more impressively than #11 MAWKEB’s win in Heat 10 on Jan 4 over the 900m. The un-raced 3yo filly was away well but dropped back to near last while travelling 2-3 wide throughout. She was a good 3-4L off the leaders throughout but did her best work in the straight, responding to a slight push to explode down the middle of the track to win by several lengths in slick time for the morning too. Only her first jump out this preparation, so keen to see another bit of work (maybe against better opposition) to get a real gauge on her ability. On this bit of work though, looks to be some talent.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Pakenham, Race 2 - MAWKEB

IMPROVIDENT's only two career runs are over 1500m and 1600m, so the 1200m first up here looks well short of his best. In saying that, the jump out was slick and he can run well here first up.


MAWKEB has recently been nominated for the Australian Guineas, 1 of only 7 un-raced horses from 111 total nominations, so the stable seem to have a big opinion of her. She was scratched from multiple races last week, most likely due to the wet track conditions. Jye McNeil was booked to ride last week and takes the ride here, but draw's poorly with barrier 15. Since we blackbooked her, she's trialled over 1100m at Tatura on Jan 13, finishing 2nd with a nice 2.5L gap back to 3rd.

She's out of a mare that broke her maiden over 1600m and was 4th in the Group 1 Oaks over 2500m, and considering she's nominated for the Australian Guineas with her last trial being over 1100m, the stable obviously think she can get over a bit of a distance. As a result, the 1200m first up might be a bit sharp, especailly because she's drawn wide so expect her to get back and run on late - the big Pakenham track with the chute start though certainly helps.


Happy to have a low/medium confidence bet on MAWKEB at the price and let her class get her over the line.


We've got a Bonus Back offer with UniBet for MAWKEB if she runs 2nd or 3rd, up to $50 - you can bet here.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 1.00 units.


Pakenham, Race 2

MAWKEB ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $7.50 (TopSport, Bet365 & Others)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +19.39 units at Recommend Price | +56.57 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY

Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!


She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!


We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...


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