BlackBook - Thursday, 3 August 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 3 August 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SWAN HILL - Race 4
IMAPAGETHREE GIRL is the un-named Press Statement x Chichi Dancer filly we were following from previous Jan 24 and Feb 9 on jump outs, however, she’s had a change of stables from Doug Whitworth to Henry Dwyer in an interesting move considering Mr D Whitworth is in the ownership and might signal some opinion they have of the horse. She moved well in Heat 10 on Mar 8 when finishing 2nd in a lovely bit of work, moving smoothly throughout when not asked for an effort at all where they did clock the third fastest time of the morning in the process. Expecting her to head to the races now and will be expecting a big debut.
IMAPAGETHREE GIRL is a previous highlight BlackBook runner from her last prep with Doug Whitworth, since being sold to Henry Dwyer for $230k. She cruised to the line in Heat 9 on Jul 12, her first jump out back.
Another solid bit of work from IMAPAGETHREE GIRL, bouncing straight to the front in Heat 6 on Jul 20 and travelling nicely on speed when finishing 2nd to Rich Glow. She cruised in 3rd place in her Jul 12 return jump out behind Steel Jimmy (since 1st by 4.5L) and Brechen as she looks to be in nice order ahead of her debut. She hasn’t exactly set the jump outs alight this time in, but convinced she’s a nice filly and certainly has a maiden in her as she approaches her debut as a 4yo.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Swan Hill, Race 4 | ​ |
#6 IMAPAGETHREE GIRL (10) - H Dywer | Medium. Don't think she's set the world alight with her recent JO's this prep, but think they know what they've got so they've kept her relatively under wraps to get her to the races. This is a very winnable race and we have liked her JO's, so she's an easy bet to have and want to be with her at the $3+. |
Last Updated: 7:38am AEDT on Thursday, 3rd August 2023.
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STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB