BlackBook - Thursday, 29 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 29 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


GEELONG - Race 5

OTHER

#8 EYE OF THE EAGLE was forced to drop back to the second half of the field in Heat 10 on Sep 7 where he travelled under a strong hold before then being asked to close off, darting back to the inside and taking the gap late over the final ~200m or so when asked to extend. His Aug 31 jump out was very quiet behind some nice horses, with his work in this heat bringing him on for his resumption following some nice enough 2yo form that is certainly handy enough for most maidens.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 5

#8 EYE OF THE EAGLE (5) - J McArdle

Medium.

He ran the meetings fastest L400m on debut at Caulfield when 2nd before going to SA in a Group 3 where he wasn't disgraced. Given time, he has jumped out well and can run well here.


It looks a race between him and GREECE. Jamie Kah heads to Geelong for only one ride on her and it's no surprise to see her a short-priced fav but at the same time, think she's under the odds - jump outs this time in haven't been anything special.


Backing our gelding to knock GREECE off. Playing ½ now and ½ closer to the jump as the money may come for the filly - if you're worried, chuck a saver on GREECE.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 10

#7 WRITTEN SUN (1) - B Prebble

His debut was horrible (at best) - he finished 12.4L last and never fired a shot. This was on a Heavy track, so he potentially didn't handle the track as he did have a $8.50 SP that day.


He steps up from 1125m to 1447m here, which looks a very favourable increase in distance, and he draws lovely again with barrier 1 and Brett Prebble taking the ride as 1 of only 2x rides for the day.

In his two career starts in NSW he led both of them to finish 2nd and 1st, so wonder if they look to utilise barrier 1 now second up to lead and give a big sight.

At $21+, happy to find out as his jump outs were way too good prior to that first up run.

Last Updated: 8:19am on Thursday, 29th September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

1003x runners | 235x winners (23%) & 275x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.36 WIN $3.05 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB