BlackBook - Thursday, 29 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 29 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Cranbourne, Race 1
#1 SQUARE CUT (7) - J Welsh
He’s only had the 1x JO ahead of his resumption here, being on Dec 5 but it was behind Gypsy Tricks (who won on debut last week) while ahead of Bella Sorellina in 3rd (who then won a 0-64 first up), so really good form.
He was purchased for only $4k in January following his two runs that prep when 8th and 7th, so the switch to Julien Welsh and almost another year off, they’ll be hoping to recoup that price very quickly.
He can run a cheeky race at a big price - backing ½ this morning at $20+ and ½ on SP.
Cranbourne, Race 2
She only had the 1x JO ahead of her debut run at Moe and she ran super, finishing 3rd behind Bahama Bay (since 4th BM70) and Hoofs Don’t Lie (since 2nd MDN). The difference between her and those two runners though is that they were leading and she was wide and back in the field, another 50m and she might have won as she was steaming home - she clocked the meetings fastest L600/400/200m of the race and the race rated really well.
Having only had that 1x JO, she’ll take a stack of improvement 2UP now and is drawn better to get a better run in transit if she settles a bit more forward. She is also back to her own sex and taking on the girls.
She'll be awfully hard to beat here and think we have to be with her. Playing late though and hoping we can get closer to ~$2.50, will message in the Telegram.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Cranbourne, Race 3
#7 HURRICANE KETUT (6) - M Brown
BlackBook jump out comments:
HURRICANE KETUT was an easy winner of Heat 9 on Dec 19, leading from start to finish under light riding as he resumed off a 6-week let up.
No bet recommended.
Last Updated: 7:51am on Thursday, 29th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1114x runners | 273x winners (25%) & 304x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 44x runners | 26x wins (59%) & 12x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 87x runners | 36x wins (41%) & 23x placings (68%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 81x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 24x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):