BlackBook - Thursday, 28 July 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 28 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

#3 DIAMATTI had 3x jump outs in Jan/Feb earlier this year, beating home 1x runner in all of those jump outs in a poor display. He was tipped out and given more time where he was gelded in the process and that looks to have switched him on, winning the 2x jump outs this time in. The 3yo son of Shooting To Win took out a Jun 28 jump out prior to his win in Heat 5 on Jul 12 where he won over 750m in the fastest time of the morning. He led throughout here, pushed out and shown the whip over the final 300m to extend away and win. We’ll be treading carefully, but these wins this time in as a gelding were nice enough.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 1

#3 DIAMATTI (2) - A Sheehan

Low/Medium.

Jump out was super and debuts on the home track with a lovely barrier. Not a stack of confidence though so we'll be ½ staking here (betting to collect 2 units as per below) and playing the SP as he likely gets out further.


Screaming Diva's JO's on Jul 8 & Jul 15 were only fair & was happy to risk her as the $2 favourite - More Than Involved looks a touch of overs after his Jul 18 trial.

WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

Pakenham, Race 4

#11 FAIRY SPIRIT (10) - J Sadler

We had this 2yo gelding as a #BlackBook runner first up where he debuted at Flemington over 1400m but was disappointing when 10th of 12. He's been given a 5-week freshen up and now pops up on the home track with the blinkers going on. Needs to improve now.

Last Updated: 8:19am on Thursday, 28th July 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

913x runners | 203x winners (22%) & 253x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.89 WIN $3.12 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB