BlackBook - Thursday, 28 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 28 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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MORNINGTON - Race 1

OTHER

The un-raced 5yo gelding #1 CHEEKY KEVIN was a very nice winner of Heat 12 on Apr 6 over the 700m, going straight to the front and giving nothing else a chance as he bolted in by a big margin, clocking 45.27s vs the day’s average of 45.32s & overall average of 45.94s. Nice debut jump out!

It was typical MISS CUMBERLAND who won Heat 4 on Apr 13 in the fastest time of the morning at 47.47s vs the days average of 49.35s - this won’t be her last jump out win as she’s a track work star who hasn’t shown much on race day. The interesting runner of Heat 4 on Apr 13 was #6 MOON YANCO in 3rd, who finished 3rd first up only 6 days ago at Kilmore when resuming off only the one jump out. She led first up but was overran late, so quite like the mid-prep jump out and think she can give a sight second up, maybe stepping back to 1000m?


MORNINGTON - Race 3

OTHER

#8 MADREAN is a 3yo Frankel filly that did it easily in 2nd in Heat 4 on Apr 12. She won a jump out back on Dec 7 alongside stablemate Outback Action who then ran 2nd in a MDN on debut that other week, and she certainly looks capable of being competitive on debut. Doubt we’ll see another jump out as that’s the usual prep Moody goes with, so keep her in mind on debut.


PAKENHAM - Race 3

OTHER

Will be having a spec on #2 BIG GIRL HELGA first up after an impressive win in Heat 5 on Apr 12, where she jumped well but dropped back to the end of the field before cruising around the field and rounding them up for an easy win over the 1000m. She’s a lightly raced 4yo mare with only the 3x starts (for 0x placings) and we’ll be expecting a big price to work with having started no shorter than $21 in her short career.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Mornington, Race 1 - CHEEKY KEVIN

It's hard to get a real guide on CHEEKY KEVIN as he's a 5yo gelding whose on debut after only having 1x 700m jump out, but it was a very impressive win and he does debut on the home track, so the stable have potentially decided to send him straight to the races to have a 'jump out for prize money', which in other words means they're not wasting any time and would rather him go straight to the races to get a win on the board for prize money than have another jump out for no prize money. Barrier 8 of 8 isn't ideal though.


MOON YANCO ran well first up when leading and has had a tick over jump out in between, which was nice. As mentioned and expected, he drops back to 1000m second up and will give a sight second up now. His first up run rated +9.6, which is the fourth best last start rating of the race and we've seen 5th and 7th since win.


This is a handy little race though. THE PUP has good form and all three career runs rated between +5.2 and +7.4, which are all competitive here. RED SISTA resumed off a big spell and potentially needed the run, so expect a much improved performance second up here as she sticks at the home track and drops back from 1200m to 1000m second up. BIDAYA also steps back to 1000m now third up and has some handy form from her last start 6th with 3rd and 5th since winning while 2nd and 4th have since placed.


It's a nice little race, which makes it hard to have plays. MOON YANCO looks the top pick from barrier 2, but don't really want to be taking ~$3.20. If CHEEKY KEVIN had of had 2x jump outs (with the second one being like his first), he'd be a good bet - but he hasn't, so he can only be a low confidence bet. Expecting CHEEKY KEVIN to get out a bit further, currently $4.60 but hopefully gets out even further - happy to have only the 0.50 units on him at the SP.


Pakenham, Race 3 - BIG GIRL HELGA

BIG GIRL HELGA can run a cheeky race first up in her second career preparation. She's only had the 1x 1000m jump out in preparation for this, but she goes straight to 1400m and on the home track with Damien Thornton on board with some gear changes.


AMPERE is the one to beat after running 2nd on debut with a massive 4.3L gap back to 3rd but she did finish 2.3L off the winner who could then only manage 6th of 7 next start, but that was in a BM64. There doesn't look to be much depth to this race outside of her though, so it's certainly very winnable.


Happy to have a small spec on BIG GIRL HELGA at a nice price, currently $16 but we'll play the SP. Low confidence play.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.75 units.


Mornington, Race 1

CHEEKY KEVIN ~ 0.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Pakenham, Race 3

BIG GIRL HELGA ~ 0.25 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +9.64 units at Recommend Price | +43.16 units at Betfair SP

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