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BlackBook - Thursday, 27 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 27 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 3

FLYCATCHER had a prep as a colt which included 3x jump outs but he didn’t get to the races. He was put away and gelded, returning to win a Jun 30 jump out where he snuck up the inside rail ahead of the race fit Royalz (since 2nd MDN) as well as Skywriter and Don’t Change where he looked to be travelling a lot better than those gallopers. He went around again in Heat 10 on Jul 14 and was superb, travelling wide throughout at the back of the field before coming to the outside fence and closing over the top of the pushed out leaders with ease, having plenty left in the tank.The 3yo son of Epaulette is going well since his gelding and looks one to follow on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 3

#3 FLYCATCHER (9) - J Cummings

Medium.

The scratching of Ortega means we can now get involved with this Godolphin gelding on debut where D Oliver takes the ride.

His JO's have been super against solid gallopers and others that have since won (such as Don't Change).


Think he'll run super here on debut and expect Oli to be giving him every chance - we can get involved at the $3+ this morning.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bendigo, Race 1

#6 QUEBECK (14) - N Dunn

BlackBook jump out comments:

QUEBECK was in another postcode, bolting in Heat 14 on Jul 17 by a huge margin over the 1000m, clocking the second fastest time of the morning behind only the well performed 6yo in Cyclone Sally. The 2yo son of Rubick has now put together back to back 1000m jump out win having won a Jul 3 jump out as well, albeit without the margin as this jump out. He can’t do much more at the jump outs and looks primed for his debut now.

Bendigo, Race 3

#1 ALBANIAN WRESTLER (11) - P Koumis

BlackBook jump out comments:

ALBANIAN WRESTLER had a solid debut prep of 3x runs for 2x placings, but resumes as a gelding in his second prep now and has strung together two solid jump outs, winning his latest in Heat 4 on Jul 19 where he did it nicely throughout. That gelding might have brought him on and be enough to get a maiden victory early this campaign.

Last Updated: 7:48am AEDT on Thursday, 27th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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