BlackBook - Thursday, 27 January 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 27 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
Though #5 SIR BAILEY extended away nicely to win Heat 2 on Jan 17. The 2yo is an Impending colt out of the superstar mare Jameka and this was a very encouraging bit of work. If he has even half the talent of his mum then he will win his fair share of races. One for the watch list.
PAKENHAM - Race 2
It was only #2 CHAIN’s first jump out back this preparation, and although he was slowly away in Heat 13 on Dec 17, he looked to be weaving his way through the field and had a bit more to offer. He caught the eye and we’ll follow him into another jump out.
We mentioned #2 CHAIN after his first jump out on Dec 17 where he sat off the speed and weaved his way through late and had a lot more to offer. His win in Heat 10 on Dec 31 saw him too good for the field, travelling quietly along the rail to lead from start to finish and win under no jockey pressure in nice time. He was under a strong hold throughout while those around him were under a lot more pressure. A $260k Magic Millions purchase who’s now with Chris Waller, he looks to be travelling well.
Pakenham, Race 2
Disappointing that MAWKEB (who was a 1 unit play @ $10) is scratched but the wet weather might have been a big query.
We were on CHAIN first up at a very short priced and while he finished 2nd, he did beat 3rd by a massive 7L - the winner has since ran 2nd in a BM58 at Kilmore on Tuesday. The run rated +4.3, with his two runs from his first preparation rating +4.2 and +0.9, all of which would have him competitive here. Craig Williams heads to Pakenham for the one ride as well, so doubt he's going there without thinking this gelding is a good chance.
SET THE SAILS first jump out was nice but his latest wasn't very good, so was happy to look around him. He might need some luck late from barrier 2 as well. He's in at Cranbourne on Friday as well as a very short priced $1.65 favourite.
LAFARGUE has only had the one jump out, but it was a nice 4th placing on Jan 10. Has the wide draw to contend with here in barrier 12.
Going to leave this one, as of this morning (8:15am). Potentially a play on CHAIN but want to wait until we have an idea of how the track is after this rain. Race isn't until 6:15pm so no point making a decision 10 hours before the race with the rain expected.
UPDATE (12:30pm): no bet race - sitting it out. CHAIN can certainly go close here, but not keen enough to get involved.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +22.39 units at Recommend Price | +59.57 units at Betfair SP
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PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...