BlackBook - Thursday, 27 April 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 27 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SEYMOUR - Race 2
#5 NEED A MIRACLE got a lovely run up the rail on debut but also was unlucky, held up several times and never really was fully tested but still managed 3rd behind Miss Galore. He clocked the meetings fastest L400m, second fastest L600m and third fastest L200m, so ran home super from last despite being held up. Given a 6-week let up, he returned in Heat 14 on Apr 21 where he was given a very easy time out the back but wide, coming to the outside of the track and cruising to the line but going very nicely. Think he can run a race second up but his racing pattern suggests he’ll need some luck (or a miracle lol).
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Seymour, Race 2
#5 NEED A MIRACLE (5) - P Payne
Thought he ran super on debut with minimal luck, finishing 3rd behind Miss Galore who has since ran 3rd in a Listed race at Morphetville. The jump out in between runs was super and on the back of that in a race that lacks depth, he's the one to beat.
Non Grata gets the blinkers on 3UP but not entirely sold on his form as he sticks at 1200m.
Have our gelding on top as the one to beat and think he will be hard to beat as a result, so happy to bet and think the ~$3 available is a good price and he likely starts closer to $2.50.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Seymour, Race 3
#2 FOXPATH (9) - C Cassar
BlackBook jump out comments:
The 2yo ARTISIAN and the 5yo FOXPATH were in a speed battle throughout Heat 3 on Apr 5 with the younger 2yo getting the better of the race fit older horse late, winning by a couple lengths in the clear fastest time of the morning and one of the quicker overall time we have recorded, so very slick.
Think we can follow both of these gallopers - the 2yo ARTISIAN was having his third jump out while FOXPATH was resuming from a 10-week let up following 5-runs that included 3x 2nd’s without his maiden win - both will be suited in 1000m maidens.
Pakenham, Race 2
#8 TORONLUCA (1) - L Oliver
BlackBook jump out comments:
A pair of jump out wins now for TORONLUCA ahead of her debut. This 3yo filly had a pair of jump outs in a previous campaign in Oct/Nov last year that culminated in her cruising to a 2nd placing behind the talented 2yo Serasana on Nov 7 before going for a spell. She returned on Mar 5 that saw her win quite well down the middle of the track where she was again cruising throughout, albeit over only 650m, before then stepping up to 800m in Heat 8 on Mar 20 for quite a dominant win in the end. She looked to be quite heavily restrained down the back straight as she took some cover form the wide barrier and she clearly did her best work in the straight once she did peel out for a bit of clear air, closing superbly down the middle of the track again under minimal pressure to get up and win. This Toronado filly looks a lovely mover and wouldn’t surprise us to see Luke Oliver make that $31k back that he paid for her at the Magic Millions Sales. Keen to follow her.
Last Updated: 7:55am AEDT on Thursday, 27th April 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):