Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 25 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BENDIGO - Race 1
Starting to build a bit of an opinion of #3 JEZOULENKO and think she’ll go alright on debut. In the second fastest time of the morning, she led the whole way to win Heat 5 on Nov 1 ahead of impressive maiden winner Jump The Broom who was put under more pressure throughout and had the rest of the field covered. She also led the whole way in an Oct 1 synthetic jump out too that caught our eye as she finished in front of the 65-rated Rousseau and Fashion Avenue (who then won by 1.5L first up). The 3yo Zoustar filly has shown talent at the jump outs and now just needs to bring it on debut, where we expect her to run well.
Slightly surprised #4 JOSEYLIN hasn’t broken the maiden yet, jumping out in Heat 2 on Nov 12 following a freshen up after the three runs this preparation. She was alongside the Group 2 winner Yes Baby Yes past the line and travelled really well throughout where they clocked nice time for the day too.
A debut win can’t be far away for #11 TOFFEE STREET, coming off a freshen up after the two runs this preparation and she now looks ready to go back to the races and be competitive. It looked as though the blinkers went on here in Heat 11 on Nov 16 as she cruised to the line to win. She has some nice form on the board this prep and can go well when she resumes.
BENDIGO - Race 6
Huge win by #2 HAY CLIFFY in Heat 6 on Nov 16 over the 1000m following a 3-week freshen up. He won a BM64 by 2L only three starts ago, but has been disappointing since. He’s 63-rated and will need a BM64 or potentially a BM58 with a high weight (and maybe a claim) to go well when he goes back to the races.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
#9 SISTER VIANNEY was 2nd in Heat 9 on Nov 1 behind Jenni Of Avalon and her form is very appealing. She was completely luckless on debut (complete ignore) before finishing 2nd to Elusive Express (2nd in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas) and then 3rd when travelling wide without cover. She’s been given time, now resuming as a 3yo and looked to travel beautifully here as she did her best work over the concluding stages despite never being asked for an effort. One to follow as this was only her first jump out back.
We mentioned that we liked the way #11 WHYWHYWHYDELILAH moved in Sep 23 jump out following a Sep 17 synthetic jump out, with the 3yo filly again jumping out well in Heat 1 on Oct 15 where only the talented Yulong Command beat her and they clocked the second fastest time of the morning. They also spaced Sound and Mahamedeis in the process. Very keen to follow her into her debut, she is flying and think she will go very close on debut (if she goes to a maiden).
PAKENHAM - Race 2
#9 PAGAN (11) - B & JD Hayes
Coming from Heat 3 on Oct 14 and finished 2nd to Dun Warrior was previous blackbook feature in PAGAN, previously featuring under his breeding Shamexpress x Spray after some nice jump outs on Sep 17 (red) and Sep 28. He was aware poorly here, but quickly mustered speed to sit just in behind the leaders where he was asked to extend late and looked really green in doing so. It was a nice trial without being super.
Another jump out from PAGAN, winning Heat 11 on Nov 1 where he was hard ridden but put a nice gap on the field and clocked a nice time in the process, being the third fastest time of the morning. This being his fourth jump out and the fact he was asked for an effort will certainly bring him on for his debut and there should be no query on fitness levels. Happy to follow him into his debut, some nice jump outs should have him well placed.
*skip to 6:46 for his NZ trial win before coming over to Aus*
In the second fastest time of the morning was the 3yo colt #10 WRITEY O’PAL, taking out Heat 4 on Nov 12 comfortably and backing up his Oct 26 jump out at Pakenham when 2nd to Pick Za Beans with a big gap back to Super Thief in 3rd. He hasn’t beaten much here and was given a push int he straight, but he can’t do much more than win like this in nice time and he’s worth keeping in mind on debut as a result.
Bendigo, Race 1 - JEZOULENKO + JOSEYLIN + TOFFEE STREET
Thought JEZOULENKO's debut run was good without winning - the run rated a very good -3.8 with the winner running 1:06.44s vs the BM58 later that day running 1:08.01s. It is the best last start benchmark rating, well ahead of the second best rating of +8.6 (VIVIANE), and the best peak benchmark rating. She's the one to beat ratings wise.
JOSEYLIN will need to improve to win this despite the nice jump out. TOFFEE STREET brings in the equal third best last start benchmark rating with NICE FOR WHAT at +11.1 and gets a heap of gear changes including the blinkers. NICE FOR WHAT was a late scratching on vet's advice at Kilmore on Sunday and has some nice form on the board - she's a big danger. Stablemate VIVIANE is a bit danger, especially with Damian Lane on board and going to Bendigo for only the one ride before heading to Pakenham later for the night meeting. Also worth noting that D Lane rode NICE FOR WHAT in her first two starts this prep but hopped off last start and stays off here.
Nice race and we're happy to sit back and watch this one. VIVIANE on top from NICE FOR WHAT with JEZOULENKO and TOFFEE STREET making up the top four for us. Any of these four winning wouldn't shock, and lets not forget JOSEYLIN and RAPID RUBY. No bet race.
Bendigo, Race 6 - HAY CLIFFY
He's very well placed here in terms of race grade, having won a BM64 only a few starts ago - he pops up here in a BM58 with 60.5kg (after the 4kg claim), although with barrier 10. Ratings wise, he brings in the fifth best last start benchmark rating at +8.6.
OUR DESTRIER jumped out super prior to his first up run but resumed in a 1200m BM64 and just wasn't up to it. Now goes back to a BM58 while stepping up to a 1300m race, which more than suits and he'll be fitter and better for the run. Ratings wise, he brings in a last start benchmark rating of +9.2 from that poor run.
Can win, but no bets for us here.
Pakenham, Race 1 - SISTER VIANNEY + WHYWHYWHYDELILAH
We had a big opinion of WHYWHYWHYDELILAH on debut, and so did the market as she was smashed in betting but didn't run even close to those expectations. She was entered at Kilmore on Sunday but scratched from that - interestingly, Damien Thornton was booked to ride on Sunday after riding on debut but jumps off here to ride our other runner SISTER VIANNEY.
JENNIFERENTI comes from a jump out where we thought we could follow all five runners. Title Shot ran 2nd first up while the other three jumped out at Cranbourne on Monday, two of them winning impressively. This filly is only the second from the heat to race so we're keen to keep an eye on how she goes for the other runners. Her jump outs have been good without being stand outs - she can give a sight.
OUR HEIDI drops back to maiden grade at her home track after two runs in town this prep. If she runs to any of her three career runs here, then she is going to be very hard to beat.
OUR HEIDI and CHERRYPICK are hard to beat and no surprise to see them the top two in the market. Our runners are at a bit longer prices, but hard to play with any confidence. Race to watch with no bets for us.
Pakenham, Race 2 - PAGAN (+ WRITEY O'PAL)
PAGAN has been sold to Hong Kong interests but for whatever reason pops up here for debut rather than heading straight over there. Opened $2.25 on TAB, got out to $2.60 because of the support of other runners but now come back in race morning. He's had plenty of jump outs and trials now and should be raring to go on debut.
Of the raced, none really stand out and it won't take a superstar debuts from any of the debutants to win this. Damian Lane booked to ride WRITEY O'PAL is a big positive. The Sale jump outs are usually hard to get a gauge on but this was a nice win and he can give a sight here. He opened $11 on TAB and was quickly backed into sub-$4.
Craig Williams heads to Pakenham for the one ride, which is a big push along with HK interests buying into him - there is obviously an opinion of him and he should be ready to go here on debut after plenty of jump outs. We're happy to have a medium confidence bet on him - not much value but he really should be winning this if he's any good.
Pakenham, Race 5 - PSYCHOKINESIS
This filly wasn't a #BlackBook runner but her debut run really caught the eye. She was away awkwardly and had to go back, held up from the 400m to 250m late and still managed to run the meetings fastest L600m, L400m and L200m (L600m rated -5.2). The run rated +9.6 overall, which is the best last start benchmark rating coming into this.
She steps up from 1217m to 1400m here, which certainly suits, and she'll be better for the experience now second up. D Stackhouse takes the ride from P Moloney. She just needs to improve on her debut run to be very hard to beat here.
We've decided to not have a play and stick to our system of only backing our #BlackBook runners - she's one to follow though for those wanting to play. Expect her to go well here.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 2.00 units.
Pakenham, Race 2
PAGAN ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.25 (Sportsbet at 8:33am) or $2.20 (Bet365 at 8:33am)
PAGAN ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall: +12.36 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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