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BlackBook - Thursday, 25 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 25 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Kilmore, Race 3

#10 TRIPLES (10) - J Cummings

BlackBook jump out comments:

It’s not a great sign when Godolphin list the dam of the highlighted horse for sale, but thought TRIPLES was good in Heat 6 on May 5 amongst some solid company and she was arguably going the better. Thought she was solid in a previous Apr 21 jump out when trailing the leader, closing well once she did check off heels and they put a gap on the rest of the field. She’s no standout, but certainly going well enough to be competitive in a country VIC maiden.

Pakenham, Race 2

#5 KINGWELL (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

The I Am Invincible colt in KINGWELL cruised to the line in Heat 11 on Apr 24, his first jump out this preparation and a really nice bit of work having never been put under pressure. Looking at his breeding, he was a $550k purchase for Mick Price back in 2021 and is a half-brother to the superstar Extreme Choice, so no shortage of talent in his family and he’s a huge watch into another jump out prior to his debut.


Extreme Choice’s little brother in KINGWELL was good again in Heat 7 on May 1 and backed up his Apr 24 jump out. The son of I Am Invincible looks to move well and closed nicely over the concluding stages as he was given a bit more of a push in this jump out as opposed to his first jump out. This wasn’t anything special but he looks good enough to be competitive in most races on debut.


Following two previous jump outs on Apr 24 and May 1, the blinkers went on for KINGWELL in Heat 9 on May 16 as he won solidly ahead of Jabbawockeez. He’s the younger brother of Extreme Choice but would’ve probably liked to see him do it a bit easier here and don’t love that he’s now had three jump outs and required the blinkers here. Think he’s going well enough to be competitive on debut, but it’ll be race dependent on if we dive in.

Pakenham, Race 3

#3 GOLDEN PATH (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

GOLDEN PATH dropped back to third last in the early stages of Heat 7 on May 16 but was able to cruise up on the outside of the field and then once put under a bit of pressure late from Beau Mertens, he closed really nicely over the top of Ellen’s Licence to win. Liked his work over 1100m here and liked his work over 990m on the synthetic track on May 9 as he cruised into 3rd place. He was purchased from NZ following a Dec 12 trial win and looks a 3yo gelding with some talent, he’s one we want to follow on debut.

Last Updated: 7:44am AEDT on Thursday, 25th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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