BlackBook - Thursday, 25 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 25 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


BENDIGO - Race 1

#3 BEOUR BAY (14) - A Alexander

BEOUR BAY was a very clear last throughout the entirety of Heat 12 on Jul 21, absolutely cruising throughout until they approached the straight where she was asked to extend and closed superbly. She made up a lot of ground easily, finishing 3rd by only 1-2L but if you watch past the line, she was in front of the leaders. In typical Archie Alexander fashion, her first jump out on Jul 7 over 900m saw her very quietly ridden to finish 5th behind Port Louis. Her debut run was ridiculous, missing the start by some 5L+ and closed in the meetings second fastest L600m/400m/200m to finish a 0.4L 3rd even when held up - she should’ve won this. She was then 4th second up to Devout Hero with the likes of Bon’s A Pearla finishing 3rd and nice form reading from the race. Expecting her to go well first up, we just need her to not be a clear last and having to do too much.


BENDIGO - Race 4

#10 STORMBOLT (9) - C Alderson

We didn’t mention STORMBOLT after his Jul 25 jump out but it was a super bit of work - he missed the kick by a considerable margin but was still able to close super down the middle of the track to finish 2nd alongside Black Ivory and behind G’day Gorgeous (since 3rd in MDN on debut). His work in Heat 7 on Aug 9 was even better though, leaving the gates fine to get a lovely sit behind debut Flemington winner Get In The Spirit, as he tracked her every move before peeling off his back at the top of straight and going past him with ease but he was nabbed late by the undefeated Zamborghini. It looks as though Cindy Alderson has a talented Foxwedge gelding here.


OTHER

#14 ORDER OF GLORY was probably out of her depth in a Jul 29 jump out when behind the likes of Written Miss, Roch ’N’ Horse and Little Stevie, where she was always out the back. She took good improvement into her second jump out, leading from start to finish in Heat 5 on Aug 12. She showed nice early speed and a nice kick around the bend to open up a gap on the field, winning in nice time for the morning. She has nice enough form from her debut prep too, finishing 3rd and 2nd before being held up in her latest run but closing well into 4th. She’s a 4yo mare worth monitoring first up.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 1

​#3 BEOUR BAY (14) - A Alexander

High.

Ran into a very smart on in What You Need first up, but she ran super to finish 3rd, gapping Spring Valley (4th) by 3.5L who has since won at Pakenham. She ran the meetings 2nd fastest L600m/L400m and the 4th fastest L200m, so the step up from 1118m to 1300m suits big time. Very keen that she will run well here and very happ to be backing her - best bet of today.

Bendigo, Race 4

Backing STORMBOLT as the main bet and then saving on ORDER OF GLORY to breakeven.

#10 STORMBOLT (9) - C Alderson

Medium.

Don't think he could've jumped out much better and know that the stable have a nice opinion of him. Jye McNeil sticks having rode him in the trial and he can make a nice debut here.

#14 ORDER OF GLORY (6) - D O'Brien

Low/Medium.

Saver bet for Stormbolt.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bendigo, Race 6

#10 BEWS (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

We were very keen on BEWS on debut and while he didn't win like a 'superstar' in terms of the massive margin etc, he still won well and can go with it here. Very interesting to see him not in on Saturday for the McNeil? Maybe this is an easier option?

Have to be mindful of THALURISAN who was a past runner for us and won very well last start - the drop back to 1100m is interesting.

DEMON BLOOD goes alright too.

Not a race we're recommending a bet in, but one we're keen to keep an eye on to see if BEWS can win again as we do think he is very talented.

Last Updated: 9:05am on Thursday, 25th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

961x runners | 220x winners (23%) & 265x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.61 WIN $3.08 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB