BlackBook - Thursday, 24 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 24 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KILMORE - Race 1

OTHER

Two nice jump out wins now for #8 FUNNY IMPACT, bolting in Heat 5 on Mar 11 following a nice 1000m win on Feb 25. The 3yo filly was very disappointing in both her runs in her debut preparation, finishing 9th (of 11) and 5th (of 7) in those two runs. She’s been given more time now and these were encouraging jump outs. She started $61 and $26 in both of her runs to date, so we might get a nice price first up for a spec.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

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Kilmore, Race 1 - THE SQUIRE

FUNNY IMPACT was quite poor in two runs to date, beaten 8.1L and 5.8L in those two career runs. We don't have a rating for her latest run, but her debut run rated +12.5 and would be the second best last start rating in the race, which highlights how little depth there is here - the debutants are the pick of the bunch.

She's had the two jump out wins ahead of her resumption that have been really nice so she can certainly resume with an improved run first up here and it won't take anything special to win. Considering she's started $61 and $26 in two ordinary runs to date, we thought she might be worth a spec at a big price but at $4-$5, we won't be getting involved.


We're going to be with the THE SQUIRE here. Racing.com have listed him incorrectly in his Mar 9 jump out behind the likes of Foxy Frida and Miss Albania - he's the one in the white coming down the outside to finish 4th while the one he's listed as (in the yellow and black Arrowfield silks) is Pentani, a 3yo colt who is owned by Arrowfield. This heat was the fastest of the morning and thought he closed really really well after travelling wide throughout.


He is clearly the one to beat in an ordinary race - jump out was been super and while there is a slight query on how forward he'll be first up considering he's only had the one jump out, would expect him to go very well here and start a lot shorter than the $2.50+ currently available. Linda Meech for Maher & Eustace hopefully signals some intent to make use of the barrier. He's also a full brother to Ken's Dream, a Group level galloper himself so there is also some talent in the family.


UPDATE: for those that missed the $2.50 when posted here (and on Twitter) Wednesday night, look to take anything about $2+ (even $1.85+) as he looks a genuine $1.50 shot in this race.


Pakenham, Race 2 - MISS JENNIFER

We won't play but thought this filly was worth mentioning in case anyone was looking at the race. Her first jump out on Mar 7, was nice without being a standout. She finished 3rd where 1st, 2nd and 4th all raced in a BM64 at Sandown on Wednesday, with Lempicka (4th in JO) winning the race and beating home Head First (1st in JO) and Rastelli 3.6L further behind (2nd in JO). She then jumped out again on Mar 15 and finished alongside The Hass (since 2nd in MDN and arguably should've won).


She draws barrier 1 here and can go well in a winnable race that drops away outside of the favourite in CATEECHEE, who is probably unlucky to still be a maiden and deserves favouritism as he'll be hard to beat here.


Pakenham, Race 4 - THUMANI

He was an 'Other' runner for us first up as a gelding but was quite disappointing over the 1100m despite starting $9.50. Thomas Stockdale reported that he did not travel well throughout and will be better suited to longer distances, hence the step up to 1400m here second up. The jump outs prior to the first up run were nice, so we can probably give him one more chance as his mum is a half-sister to Dreams And Wishes, who got out over 2000m, so maybe the extra distance will suit a lot more.


Theodore Nugent jumps on board, having had 9x rides for Joseph Waldron for 3x wins at a P.O.T of 322.8%... at $101, we might as well have a tiny bet to find out. Very minimal confidence so we're not going to make him an official play, but personally going to have $5 (0.05 units) on at the $101 on TAB this morning.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Kilmore, Race 1

THE SQUIRE ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.60 (BetRight) OR $2.50 (TAB and Bet365)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +2.36 units at Recommend Price | +38.92 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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