BlackBook - Thursday, 24 February 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 24 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
KILMORE - Race 1
#1 ALL SHE WROTE (1) - M Laurie
Very keen on ALL SHE WROTE second up now, closing super out wide in Heat 7 on Feb 16 and she is clearly better than maiden grade. We loved her jump outs on Dec 22 and Jan 5 prior to her first up run where she got back, raced 3 wide without cover throughout and closed well to finish 3rd but did look to tire late as shown through her sectionals where she ran the meetings fastest 600-400m split and the 8th fastest 400-200m split before slowing over the final 200m. She’ll take plenty of improvement from that and with her 1000m jump out in between the runs, she’ll be ready to break the maiden second up now. Keen to follow.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
#6 YAKI ISHI had a terrible run throughout Heat 6 on Feb 7 but he did a super job to still close well and finish only 1L off the winner. Considering he’s a 2yo colt only having his first jump out this preparation, he did a super job to continue to hit the line hard. One to keep an eye on heading into another jump out with maybe a bit more luck.
PAKENHAM - Race 2
It was evident on debut that #7 ORIENTAL LEGEND was looking for further, but he was put away and given more time. The 3yo colt returned to win Heat 2 on Feb 15 over the 1000m and was really extending away past the line after being challenged late. He’s by Snitzel and a half-brother to Group 1 ATC Derby winner in Jon Snow as well as Princess Rhaenys (4th in the Group 1 Vinery Stud), so there is no doubt he’ll be better over a mile (and more) so maybe one to follow as he gets out in distance.
PAKENHAM - Race 6
#4 VASMEE is talented. He has won Heat 19 on Feb 14 over the 1400m by a bigger than massive margin following a forgive run at Sandown where he had an eye ailment and EIPH. Prior to that run, he won a MDN and a CL1 by 4.2L so when right he is clearly a nice horse and on the back of this jump out, he looks ready to put those issues behind him and if he goes to a BM64 first up, look out.
OTHER RUNNERS - NZ
Wanganui, Race 2 - #1 ROCKET SCIENCE (13)
Bolted in by 6L on Dec 9 and then led from start to finish under a ridiculous hold to win by 3.5L on Feb 8 in nice time over the 1000m.
Kilmore, Race 1 - ALL SHE WROTE
Expecting ALL SHE WROTE to run well here. Her first up run when 3rd over 1100m at Geelong rated +6.0, which is the best last start rating and the peak rating of this field - she travelled three wide throughout that day and still ran on well. Jump out in between runs was super and the step up to 1200m here is ideal. Worry looks to be barrier 1 but we may see her take up a more prominent position as a result.
MALLY MALT can run well here second up and her form ties into ALL SHE WROTE - she finished 4th on debut, beating home Glamouring (5th) who had just beaten home ALL SHE WROTE by 2L in the start prior. She was away poorly and cut the corner to come home well and get 4th with Dream Inherit (3rd) since winning a nice maiden at Sandown since. She looks the main danger.
MY WHISPER won a Feb 4 jump out before finishing 4th on Feb 14 and looked okay. MY GIRL LACEY was $101 and $81 in her first two runs and comes up sub-$5 here... seems under the odds.
Worried about the barrier for ALL SHE WROTE but it looks a race between her and MALLY MALT. She might go forward and take up a more prominent position just in behind MY GIRL LACEY who looks as though she'll take up the lead from barrier 2 - will need some luck in running in the straight but happy to take the ~$3.50+ on offer.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Kilmore, Race 1
ALL SHE WROTE ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $3.70 (TopSport or TAB)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +1.06 units at Recommend Price | +37.38 units at Betfair SP
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