BlackBook - Thursday, 23 September 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 23 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

#13 BEAUKATI (9) - C McDonald

We mentioned BEAUKATI as a 2yo following some nice jump outs on Apr 27 and May 11 (pink). She was put away for a short spell, returning Aug 17 where she again showed heaps of speed to lead but was overran late to finish 2nd to Star Midfielder (since 3rd MDN). Hard to be more impressed than her 2nd in Heat 2 on Aug 31 to Dosh. Dosh was too speedy early, but this 3yo filly 2-3L off her before being asked for an effort late and really closing that margin to only just finish 2nd as the 69-rated Beltoro was the only other one really making ground late - not to mention, she would’ve clearly won any other heat due to how quick this heat was. As mentioned previously, she’s a half-sister to Saltpeter, Flostar and Magnatti and was a $120k purchase at the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale. Huge watch on debut.


OTHER

No doubt #8 DOLLAR CHASER has come back as an improved 3yo. He didn’t quite measure up in his first two career runs, forgiving his run at Flemington due to a slow recovery, but the break looks to have done him a world of good. Thought he closed well in an Aug 5 jump out despite being beaten a long way over the 800m. Stepping up to 1000m in Heat 5 on Aug 19, he jumped cleanly to sit just in behind the speed before closing in on the breakaway leader despite being put under minimal pressure. They clocked the clear fastest 1000m synthetic time of the morning that was well above average in a super bit of work. Following and could be a nice price.


#9 FLY ON BYE is travelling really well ahead of his return to the races. He was 2nd to the recent maiden winner Queen Of Dubai on Aug 9 where he was quietly ridden, with the jockey looking over the shoulders as he was eased out. It looked like Jamie Kah was on board in Heat 12 on Aug 20 as the 3yo cruised to the line ahead of Good And Proper and looked as though he had a bit left in the tank. He failed on debut at the Valley behind Crystal Bound, immediately spelled though so suspect this was very short of his best. Keen to follow him as he looks a nice mover.


CRANBOURNE - Race 2

OTHER

Not sure what to make of #2 HARTACK. He jumped out super prior to his debut and was well backed with D Oliver on board but was disappointing when a 9.6L 6th of 8 runners. He was immediately spelled though, switching over to the Smiley Chan yard during the break and returning for some more nice jump outs and trials, the latest winning Heat 4 on Sep 13 over 1190m in really slick time for the day ahead of Just Benjamin and a fast finishing Groovy Kinda Love. Obviously some expectations of him, being a $270k buy from NZ and with that kind of market support on debut. He’s one to keep an eye on as he resumes.


#4 SLAM THE HAMMA has had 12 career starts for 0 wins and 0 placings… and has absolutely bolted in Heat 3 on Sep 8 in the fastest 1000m time of the morning. Going to need a decent price to back him but a fair jump out win…


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

#10 SONG OF THE NILE (10) - C Alderson

SONG OF THE NILE with a nice all the way win in Heat 7 on Aug 23, clocking a nice time in the process. The 3yo filly is with Julien Welsh for this jump out, but is actually trained by Cindy Alderson and must have made the switch to touch up her barrier manners.

SONG OF THE NILE was certainly with Julien Welsh on Aug 23 to touch up barrier manners. She jumped well in Heat 13 on Sep 6 but edged back and soon found herself last before making a move around the field out wide. She was given a push at the top of the straight and was a bit green, but made nice ground late to get into 2nd. Putting her on the watch list as this heat was quick and she probably would’ve won any of the other jump outs if she was in a different heat.

SONG OF THE NILE won a Aug 23 under Julien Welsh before finishing 2nd on Sep 6 and then absolutely bolting in Heat 19 on Sep 13 over the 990m in a very impressive bit of work. This was almost the perfect jump out - she jumped beautifully, straight to the front to lead with no pressure and then kicked away around the bend to record a 6L victory with the rest of the field chasing and no chance of catching her. An impressive bit of work by this 3yo filly to top off her previous jump outs. She’ll be competitive on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Cranbourne, Race 1 - BEAUKATI (DOLLAR CHASER & FLY ON BYE)

BEAUKATI debuted in a BM64 at Sandown and started $6.50 but was quite disappointing when 8th of 10. Back to maiden grade now suits and that run is the best last start benchmark rating coming into this. She pulled up with a slow recovery and gets the tongue tie on here - will be improved second up. FLY ON BYE also gets the tongue tie on, but he was a bit disappointing first up. The run does come in as the third best last start benchmark rating though and we've seen some reasonable form come from the race.


DOLLAR CHASER ran a big race at a big price first up. That run rated alright too (fourth best last start benchmark rating) but he was beaten a long way back in 3rd.


Happy to give BEAUKATI another chance, she's on top - was in a tough race for a debut, had the slow recovery with the tongue tie coming on now and the run rated the best heading into this. If she's come on from that, she'll be hard to beat. Have FLY ON BYE as one of the dangers, along with FROSTICK third up now. DOLLAR CHASER looks an E/W chance more than a winning chance. Those are the top four.


Still happy to be on BEAUKATI at ~$3.50, hoping we got on the $4+ in early markets. Having a saver on FLY ON BYE at $5.50 and can also have a saver on DOLLAR CHASER at $13, but BEAUKATI the main bet.


Cranbourne, Race 2 - HARTACK & SLAM THE HAMMA

HARTACK has always been a super jump out performer, but that didn't translate to race day on debut. Suspect he will need further than the 1200m first up, so quite low confidence but at ~$8 we can have a small play.


SLAM THE HAMMA is the one we want to play at a big price. Hasn't placed in 12 career starts but after a massive jump out win, he gets the blinkers off and winkers first time. He also has the best last start benchmark rating and the second best peak benchmark rating. We were happy to take the $34+ in early markets, but still think the $26 is good for a small spec. Low confidence, but a big price to find out so willing to play.


Cranbourne, Race 3 - SONG OF THE NILE

Jump outs and trials were super and was close to being our Top Performer last week, just worried she might have ran into a couple of nice ones on debut in CALIPER and FORBIDDEN CITY (maybe even STARLEA).

Keen to see how she goes on debut - happy to take the $4+ and our UniBet offer for a bonus back for 2nd or 3rd.


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