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BlackBook - Thursday, 23 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 23 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

Lovely work from the Maher & Eustace trained #7 YOTOTSU, taking out Heat 3 on Mar 8 by a big margin as he went forward and was pushed out, extending away late. This 2yo filly is by Maurice having been a $110k purchase and went to the line with Cosmic Enigma (since 2nd MDN) in a previous Stawell jump out on Feb 23, so she might have a ripper turn of foot that we couldn’t properly see in this Ballarat jump out as she won by such a big margin, but that might also be why she won by that margin. A filly to monitor.


PAKENHAM - Race 5

#11 MISS MILHOUS (8) - A Alexander

It didn’t have the big margin like her first jump out on Jan 23, but #11 MISS MILHOUS was super again in Heat 8 on Feb 3 when finishing 3rd. The 3yo filly got a lovely trail in the back half of the field along the fence behind the leaders before peeling out late and closing really nicely once she did get out into that clear air. She wasn’t ‘pushed out’, but was given a bit more reign and ridden differently where she was asked to close off from behind, so very encouraging signs and quite convinced this is a nice filly. As mentioned the other week, she was a $220k buy and Archie looks to have a nice Toronado filly on his hands. Very keen to follow her into her debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 1

#7 YOTOTSU (7) - C Maher & D Eustace

Medium.

Her first ever JO was alongside Cosmic Enigma, who's older and has some solid form on the board, and the latest JO was a demolition job.

If she runs anything like her jump outs, she'll be awfully hard to beat here


She looks a big filly by Maurice and having been owned by those that had Hitotsu (hence the name), so hopefully she can be even half as talented and she'll go a long way.


Following the scratching of the second fav, she's the clear one to beat and very happy to be with her now at anything ~$2, think she starts $1.60-ish.

Pakenham, Race 3

#7 DESIAH (10) - C Maher & D Eustace

Low/Medium.

This is actually a reasonable BM58 - Holly Lolly deserves to be favourite dropping back in class significantly and rising to 1200m.


This filly though looks to be flying at the jump outs - she didn't finish 8th in that first JO, she was actually 3rd/4th and cruising to the line while her latest JO saw her fly home late in a super bit of work.


Barrier 10 of 11 isn't ideal, but think she's over the odds and happy to have a bet at the ~$5, but we'll be ½ staking (bet to collect 2%).

Pakenham, Race 5

#11 MISS MILHOUS (8) - A Alexander

Medium.

We were keen on her on debut but she ran into one better, Hooah Havana who has since won a CL1 by 1.2L, while gapping 3rd by 2.5L. She ran the meetings 11th fastest L400m and the 4th fastest L200m, so was clearly doing her best work late and the step up from 1200m to 1400m certainly will suit.


It's also good to see Declan Bates on board for Archie, who go at 15% across 475x rides and it's his only ride for the day.


No surprise to see El Soleado favourite but he seems fairly exposed now and has had his chance, so going with this filly who has some upside - happy to bet and think the ~$5+ is a nice price - she's a really good E/W bet.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 2

#7 QUEEN OF MALWA (2) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

BlackBook jump out comments:

Expecting Heat 8 on Mar 6 to be a good form reference going forward. The jump out was won by a race fit GREECE, but the three 3yo filly’s who finished right behind her are all worth keeping an eye on.

The less experience of the three was QUEEN OF MALWA, a 3yo Pariah filly having only her first jump out for the prep when finishing 4th so expect her to take a stack of improvement from this into another jump out before debtuing.

Pakenham, Race 2

#11 STARIANNE (8) - T Busuttin & N Young

BlackBook jump out comments:

Few nice horses from Heat 11 on Feb 27. KATSU lead for all but the final 5m in a nice bit work, overran late by WHAT YOU NEED who looks to be in good order ahead of his return after that Coolmore campaign that went amiss. The undefeated MAGIC TIME was slick in 4th, likewise STARIANNE in 5th who was flying home from the back down the middle of the track.


Thought the latest JO over 1000m was only fair...

Pakenham, Race 4

#9 EXOEXO (7) - K & K Keys

BlackBook jump out comments:

EXOEXO was trucking along in Heat 18 on Feb 27 over the 1000m, a lovely return for this 7-start maiden. Keeping a close eye on this 4yo mare for another jump out before she returns to the jump outs.


Beaten by a big margin in a recent 1000m JO that was ordinary.

Last Updated: 7:40am AEDT on Thursday, 23rd March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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