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BlackBook - Thursday, 23 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 23 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

This was some sort of jump out by #8 WAR FRONTIER. He cruised out the back in a Dec 28 jump out when 9th, similar to a Jan 4 jump out when 3rd of 4 runners but he was given a bit more of a push. Now having his third jump out in Heat 2 on Jan 16, the 3yo colt was away fine and really quickly mustered speed but was put under as strangle hold to sit at the rear of the field where he was then forced to check off heels to the outside and once he got that clear galloping room, he picked up the entire field with ease, finishing a close 5th but he almost could’ve gone over the top of Jacquinot if he was really pushed out and asked. He’s a northern hemisphere 3yo that’s still a 2yo having been foaled in April 2020, so he’ll be giving a bit of age away but this was a super bit of work and having had the three jump outs now, he’ll be primed and ready to go for a big debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 1

#8 WAR FRONTIER (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

Loved this colt's jump outs and he was entered in here at Pakenham a couple weeks ago where he was scratched and we haven't seen him since, so it's now been almost 5 weeks since his latest JO... in saying that, this looks a lovely maiden for him and he's not going to have to be any superstar in order to win this.


Interestingly enough, he was scratched from the maiden Jessup last ran in and was shorter in the market than her that day. She's the only real danger and could be worth a saver if you're keen on that.

Against Toronto Terrier, thought his jump outs were ordinary, and against the rest of the field big time.


Think he has talent and if he shows that talent here, he should be hard to beat so happy to be with him!

Last Updated: 8:20am AEDT on Thursday, 23rd February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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