BlackBook - Thursday, 23 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 23 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WANGARATTA - Race 4

OTHER

#16 WHAT HAPPENED was a blackbook runner prior to being sold to Hong Kong, jumping out under his breeding Reward For Effort x Ballymoon. He clearly didn’t handle heading overseas, finishing 11th of 12 in his only run. His jump outs prior to going to HK were in 2020 including wins on Apr 20 and May 8 (ahead of The Inevitable). He lead in his first jump out back in Aus, and then just cruised the line under no urgency to finish 4th in Heat 6 on Nov 9. Always thought he was talented and was disappointed when he got sold to HK, so hopefully he’s returned to Aus with the same ability. Big watch.

#16 WHAT HAPPENED (used to be named Colossale) was 3rd in Heat 6 on Nov 22, his third jump out in 13 days where he was ridden cold out the back and then given a push late and asked to respond. An Aus debut shouldn’t be far away now.

As mentioned previously, #16 WHAT HAPPENED was named Colossale but has now had the name change as he comes back to Aus from HK and has had a mixed bag of jump outs and trials. His latest coming in Heat 6 on Dec 8, being a win over 1100m and he looked to move well, certainly well enough to be competitive in maidens here in VIC. We’ll follow him into his debut.


WANGARATTA - Race 7

OTHER

#11 DESIGNED TO RUN won Heat 15 on Dec 8 by 6L and clocked the fastest time of the morning. She’s a 4yo mare with 10 career starts for 1 win and 0 placings, so she doesn’t have the best record and will need to resume in a BM58 for us to consider backing her.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Wangaratta, Race 4

WHAT HAPPENED has had a lot of jump outs and trials in preparation for his Aus debut, five to be exact, and his latest official trial over 1100m was certainly his best bit of work. There would've been a query on how he's come back to Aus after his short stint in HK, but with plenty of work under his belt, he should be forward enough here first up for a 1170m race. The only query is on the terrible barrier he's drawn with barrier 17 of 18 (which comes into barrier 13 after scratchings).


Ratings wise, the best last start rating comes from CORNUCOPIA at +6.4, followed by COME ON EILEEN (+8.5) and ARCTIC STONE (+8.6). ARCTIC STONE has only jumped out fairly in three jump outs at Flemington.


This looks very winnable. If he hadn't drawn so wide, he would've been a medium confidence bet but it's going to take a nice run and ride to overcome that. If he can jump well and get a nice spot midfield with some cover, then he can run well, but it's a big 'IF'. In saying that, we don't want to let him go around with no bets on so going to play for a low confidence bet.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 1.00 units.


Wangaratta, Race 4

WHAT HAPPENED ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $8.00 (TopSport)


Overall: -5.45 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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