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BlackBook - Thursday, 22 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 22 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GOSFORD - Race 1

OTHER

Like the way #8 DIFFERENT DRUM moved in Trial 13 on Nov 18, being only her first career trial so will be keeping an eye on another. She is by I Am Invincible out of a Redoute’s Choice mare and James Harron paid $1.9M for her full-brother back in 2018.


#10 PASSEGGIATA is a previous feature of our reviews from her prep as a late 2yo having won trials on Jun 3 and Jun 20, that latest one on Jun 20 a 8.39L win in the second fastest time of the morning at 53.23s behind Shades Of Rose’s 53.09s, which is flying. She didn’t make it to the races that prep, given more time and returning here in Trial 11 on Dec 8 as a 3yo where she picked up where she left off. She showed tremendous early speed to lead very easily but doing so with the mouth open as she wanted to go on with it. Tim Clark kept her under a hold and she just cruised to the line, recording a dominant win but then watching past the line, she was still extending which is what you want to see. A $130k purchase from the 2021 Inglis Classic Yearling Sale, she looks a speedy and talented daughter of Winning Rupert.


WANGARATTA - Race 3

OTHER

#5 KEEFNEEDSAFEED put in a solid bit of work in Heat 14 on Dec 5, finishing a quiet 2nd in his first jump out this prep. A 3yo son of Akeed Mofeed, he’s one to keep an eye on.

He wasn’t a standout, but #5 KEEFNEEDSAFEED was solid when quietly ridden into 3rd place in Heat 12 on Dec 12, which was similar to his Dec 5 jump out when also quietly ridden but this time up the inside to finish 2nd, both over 1000m. The 3yo son of Akeed Mofeed has yet to been fully let go, so we’re not entirely surely whats under the bonnet but he looks to be a nice mover so keeping a close eye on him.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Gosford, Race 1

We'll be backing DIFFERENT DRUM to win and saving on PASSEGGIATA to breakeven - expecting one of these two to win.

#8 DIFFERENT DRUM (4) - J Pride

Medium.

Scratched from Canterbury last Friday night as the stable had the $3 fav (who they expected to win but finished 2nd).

She pops up here now and is drawn beautifully in an ideal race where Passeggiata (below) looks the only real danger. She's the one to beat for us.

#10 PASSEGGIATA (9) - B Baker

Low/Medium.

Her trials have been super but she's only had the 1x this prep ahead of her debut and she's drawn barrier 9 of 9, so find it hard to justify taking ~$2 about her, especially when we have another runner in the race.

Hoping she runs well (but not well enough to knock off Different Drum) so we can follow her 2UP.

Wangaratta, Race 3


#5 KEEFNEEDSAFEED (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

This looks a lovely kick off point for this gelding, putting together 2x nice 1000m JO's where he's never been fully let go. The 1300m looks ideal but do suspect he'll get out over further.


Capistan is understandably the one to beat having ran 2nd to Striking Plains (who we were on) on debut, but he had the perfect run that day.


Think our gelding can go well on debut and at $4+, was happy to have a bet at that price and think he starts around the $3-$3.50 mark.

Last Updated: 7:56am on Thursday, 22nd December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1105x runners | 269x winners (24%) & 303x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.17 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 43x runners | 25x wins (58%) & 12x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 81x runners | 34x wins (42%) & 21x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 78x runners | 17x wins (22%) & 24x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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