Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 22 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
HAWKESBURY - Race 2
#8 BLACK IRIS was superb in Trial 12 on Sep 9. In a small field, the 3yo filly sat midfield throughout but wide before going to the outside fence and closing super to finish a close 2nd despite being under no pressure from James McDonald who has been on for both of her trials, the other being on Jul 22 when also closing superbly behind Jewellery, who’s a talented filly herself. Definite watch on this filly for her debut.
PAKENHAM - Race 3
#6 TRUST RUSTY has looked slick in both of his jump outs over 1000m, the first a win on Aug 23 on the synthetic track with the latest here, being a 2nd placing in Heat 6 on Sep 6 on the grass. He sat just off the speed here, stalking the leaders before then cruising to the line under a hold with the Eventually, who he looked better than and was going on with it past the line as well. He’s a 5yo son of Trust In A Gust who’s only just getting to the races now, but he certainly looks to have at least a maiden win in him on the back of these jump outs.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Hawkesbury, Race 2
Her trials were super, especially the latest one and although James McDonald isn't on board here, Sam Clipperton did ride her back in Feb in her other trial so he'll be aware of what she's capable of (plus she'd be $1.50 if J-Mac was on board). If she runs to her trials, she'll be very hard to beat.
She's short at ~$2 so think we'll wait until closer to the jump to try and sneak a better price.
Pakenham, Race 3
#6 TRUST RUSTY (3) - C Maher & D Eustace
A 5yo who's just getting to the track now - he's been scratched from several races with terrible barriers but finally finds a race on the synthetic (no worries about wet) with a nice draw of barrier 3. This is an alright maiden with plenty of chances but he hasn't done anything wrong in his JO's and at ~$7, happy to have a smaller play.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Moe, Race 3
#8 BASQUE (9) - S Nichols
She's an Extreme Choice filly and it's no secret that they are flying on the track. She had a quiet 600m hit out before an official trial at Cranbourne when cruising down the middle of the track into 2nd to She Daresthe Devil (since ran 6th at $7.50 SP) with Veloce Carro in 3rd but they were almost holding hands when going to the line (she's since ran 2nd).
She looks the top chance here in an ordinary field.
Moe, Race 8
#5 WRITEY O'PAL (12) - M Huglin
He has been winning jump outs for fun, the latest on Sep 7 over 1000m here at Moe where he won with ease and clocked the fastest time of the morning in the process.
He's still lightly raced having only had the 3x starts, the latest 2x 4th's in Handicap races at Caulfield and Flemington, both of which are more than good enough form for a country BM64.
Last Updated: 8:25am on Thursday, 22nd September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
993x runners | 233x winners (23%) & 273x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.37 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):